162 Valley Dr · Churchville, PA 18966

$564,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1955 0.65 ac lot $343/sqft · 60% above area Est $707k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this rarely offered ranch home on a large, level lot, in highly sought after school district of Council Rock. This well maintained home offers years of pride in ownership. Walk into a light filled large living room with a stone wood burning fireplace. Living room leads to dining room with sliding glass doors with a beautiful view of the backyard. The large kitchen is off of the dining room and includes a skylight for plenty of sunlight. The basement is finished and includes a large living area with a bar, a separate 2nd retro kitchen, laundry area, a large storage room and a large utility room which doubles as a workshop. Bilco doors lead to the outside yard. Back upstairs you wi

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Large level lot
• Finished basement

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• LARGE LEVEL LOT
• STONE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• SEPARATE RETRO KITCHEN
• LARGE STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces) with side entry, oversized bay and garage door opener, additional storage area; Asphalt driveway with room for 4 cars; Total parking for 6 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water (also well); Electric cooling; Oil heating; 60+ gallon hot water tank
• Home design: Detached property; Bay/bow windows
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Patio(s); Screened outdoor living area; Shed; Front yard; Level lot; Rear yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Single oven; Electric range/oven
• Basement: Fully finished basement; Sump pump; Walkout stairs; Workshop space; Other finished areas
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bath on the main level; One half bath on the main level; Total: one full bath, one half bath
• Fireplace: One fireplace with stone surround and glass doors
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Second kitchen; Attic with house fan; Bar; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen area; Sound system; Recessed lighting; Skylights; Wood floors; Sliding glass door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer (electric); Laundry in basement; Water heater (60+ gallon tank)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $565k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (66.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (64.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (66.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 2.5% in Churchville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#729 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Council Rock SD (suburban): math 56% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #36 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($548k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $565k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,166 (66.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 66% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.09%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 23.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $707,343
• List price: $564,900
• Delta: -20.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
261 Fairhill Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,687 (+2%)	3mo	$575,000	$341	64
209 Windsor Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,735 (+5%)	11mo	$581,000	$335	54
202 Stratford Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	22mo	$462,000	$289	52
1456 Bristol	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,534 (-7%)	22mo	$335,000	$218	42
234 New Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,566 (-5%)	10mo	$638,000	$407	40
677 Lynne Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,498 (-9%)	16mo	$465,000	$310	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-226,738
• Equity at exit: $84,228

10-year hold

• IRR: -91.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.35×
• Total profit: $-371,793
• Equity at exit: $48,842

Cash invested: $158,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18966

• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 23.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,962
• Tax from tax record: −$504 /mo · $6,042/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-2,121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,685

Max offer price $190,166

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,802	-5% $-1,961	+0% $-2,121	+5% $-2,281	+10% $-2,441
Rent	-10% $-2,279	-5% $-2,200	+0% $-2,121	+5% $-2,042	+10% $-1,963
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,837	-0.5pp $-1,978	base $-2,121	+0.5pp $-2,268	+1.0pp $-2,417

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,225
• Closing costs: $16,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Bustleton Pike Churchville, PA	3.0	1.0	1130	$2,000	$1.77	44d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $564,900 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   price $564,900 1522-char remark
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $599,900 Active 1522-char remark
4. 1990-11-19
   soldstatus $163,500
5. 1977-08-01
   soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,042 · $504/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,484 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,442/yr (+$120/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,643
• − Property taxes: −$6,042
• − Insurance: −$2,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$16,433
• Taxable loss: −$36,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,828
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Council Rock SD
• NCES district ID: 4206960
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $110,567
• Composite: 58.48/100
• National rank: #1000
• State rank: #36 of 539 in PA

Livability — Churchville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #729
• US rank: #7283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 35,994
• Population (ZIP): 35,994

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 5% Subsaharan African 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -393.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+826.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-26 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $564,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $599,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $163,500 Public Records
• 1977-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,042 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.