1687 Timberline Dr · Onalaska, TX 77360

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1998 1.21 ac lot $123/sqft · 18% above area Est $127k · 18% over $2/mo HOA ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Timberline Drive, where you’ll find space, privacy, and easy access to the lake in the Onalaska area. Situated on 1.2 acres, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable layout with functional living spaces and a large open area alongside the home, giving you added room to spread out or use as you need. The open-concept design connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet storage. The primary suite includes a claw-foot soaking tub, walk-in shower, and double vanity. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or everyday use. A 50-amp RV connection is available. Outside, you’ll find a detached garage/workshop, concrete patio, and a fenced area surrounding the home. The community offers a clubhouse, boat ramp, and fishing dock with access to Lake Livingston.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• 1.2 acres
• Granite countertops

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO THE LAKE
• 1.2 ACRES
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $208 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska El (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 70% FRL); Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $124 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-913 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,655 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,500
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 17.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Timberline Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	13mo	$114,900	$94	79
149 Park Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,188 (-2%)	6mo	$184,900	$156	74
156 Armadillo T	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (-2%)	22mo	$29,000	$24	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,596
• Equity at exit: $39,046

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $35,892
• Equity at exit: $43,473

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77360

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,417 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $714/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $293	-5% $251	+0% $208	+5% $166	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $153	+0% $208	+5% $264	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $247	base $208	+0.5pp $170	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $150,000 Pending 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Pending 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Pending 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Pending 53 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Pending 52 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $150,000 Pending 51 DOM
8. 2026-04-09
   historical

   Show marketing remark (910 chars)

   Welcome to Timberline Drive, where you’ll find space, privacy, and easy access to the lake in the Onalaska area. Situated on 1.2 acres, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable layout with functional living spaces and a large open area alongside the home, giving you added room to spread out or use as you need. The open-concept design connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet storage. The primary suite includes a claw-foot soaking tub, walk-in shower, and double vanity. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or everyday use. A 50-amp RV connection is available. Outside, you’ll find a detached garage/workshop, concrete patio, and a fenced area surrounding the home. The community offers a clubhouse, boat ramp, and fishing dock with access to Lake Livingston.

9. 2026-04-09
   listed $160,000 Active 910-char remark

   Show marketing remark (910 chars)

   Welcome to Timberline Drive, where you’ll find space, privacy, and easy access to the lake in the Onalaska area. Situated on 1.2 acres, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable layout with functional living spaces and a large open area alongside the home, giving you added room to spread out or use as you need. The open-concept design connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet storage. The primary suite includes a claw-foot soaking tub, walk-in shower, and double vanity. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or everyday use. A 50-amp RV connection is available. Outside, you’ll find a detached garage/workshop, concrete patio, and a fenced area surrounding the home. The community offers a clubhouse, boat ramp, and fishing dock with access to Lake Livingston.

10. 2026-04-09
    price $160,000

    Show marketing remark (910 chars)

    Welcome to Timberline Drive, where you’ll find space, privacy, and easy access to the lake in the Onalaska area. Situated on 1.2 acres, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable layout with functional living spaces and a large open area alongside the home, giving you added room to spread out or use as you need. The open-concept design connects the living, kitchen, and dining areas, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinet storage. The primary suite includes a claw-foot soaking tub, walk-in shower, and double vanity. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or everyday use. A 50-amp RV connection is available. Outside, you’ll find a detached garage/workshop, concrete patio, and a fenced area surrounding the home. The community offers a clubhouse, boat ramp, and fishing dock with access to Lake Livingston.

11. 2026-03-12
    status Active
12. 2026-03-05
    status Pending
13. 2026-01-10
    listed $170,000 Active
14. 2023-03-29
    soldstatus
15. 2001-08-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $714 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,031/yr (+$169/mo · 284.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$714
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,360
• − Management: −$1,360
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $25
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6
• After-tax cash flow: $2,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,130

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 150.9486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $714 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.