1500 SW 153rd Ct · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 2007 10,454 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful brand new split plan with cathedral ceilings, carpet , tile and landscaping. Upgraded tile shower fans in every room. Huge walk-in in Master.

Key facts

• Private well
• Screened in garage
• Versatile bonus room

Tags

• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• SCREENED IN GARAGE
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

🏗️ New construction. The $205,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $258,876.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-340 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1158 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; list at $205k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,876
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15592 SW 8th Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-3%)	9mo	$218,000	$163	67
15228 SW 16th St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-8%)	8mo	$237,900	$188	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-63,597
• Equity at exit: $38,599

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-83,177
• Equity at exit: $22,383

Cash invested: $72,485 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1158
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,883/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,265

Max offer price $248,355

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $14	+0% $-340	+5% $-430	+10% $-519
Rent	-10% $-485	-5% $-413	+0% $-340	+5% $-268	+10% $-195
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-274	base $-340	+0.5pp $-407	+1.0pp $-476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,719
• Closing costs: $7,766
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	14d	1	0.71mi
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	15d	1	0.82mi
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	22d	1	1.00mi
14896 SW 33rd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,900	$1.16	22d	1	1.27mi
14070 SW 17th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,500	$1.08	22d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $205,000 Pending 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $205,000 Pending 226 DOM
3. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-04
   price $205,000
5. 2026-04-04
   price $205,000
6. 2026-01-22
   status Active
7. 2026-01-21
   historical
8. 2025-11-07
   price $210,000
9. 2025-11-07
   price $210,000
10. 2025-11-06
    listed $215,000 Active
11. 2025-10-19
    price $215,000
12. 2025-08-13
    price $205,000
13. 2007-09-04
    soldstatus $129,000
14. 2007-08-30
    soldstatus $129,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Beautiful brand new split plan with cathedral ceilings, carpet , tile and landscaping. Upgraded tile shower fans in every room. Huge walk-in in Master.

15. 2007-02-08
    listed $134,000 151-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Beautiful brand new split plan with cathedral ceilings, carpet , tile and landscaping. Upgraded tile shower fans in every room. Huge walk-in in Master.

16. 2006-06-29
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,188/yr (+$99/mo · 231.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,006
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,501
• − Property taxes: −$3,883
• − Insurance: −$1,294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$7,531
• Taxable loss: −$8,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+127.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — RACC
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $205,000 RACC
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-01-21 Delisted — RACC
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $210,000 RACC
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listed $215,000 RACC
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-30 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-08 Listed $134,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $514 · +70.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.