11825 Larimore Rd · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1927 7,405 sqft lot ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is ready for renovation, presenting an excellent opportunity for a buyer with vision to add significant value and customize the property. With a large basement, opportunity awaits! This asset is available as part of a one-off purchase or a portfolio deal. Contact the listing agent to explore packaging options with other properties.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1927

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.9% vs local median 7.9% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Larimore Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,301 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.43%
• DSCR: 4.27
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,956
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1031 Farmview Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,254 (-3%)	4mo	$45,000	$36	85
1019 Farmview Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (+2%)	3mo	$49,900	$38	76
11714 Larimore Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	8mo	$116,000	$86	68
1202 Laredo Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-11%)	2mo	$99,500	$86	66
1018 Lakeview Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,137 (-12%)	2mo	$95,000	$84	62
931 Prigge Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (-10%)	2mo	$175,000	$151	57
1445 Fairmeadows Ln	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,236 (-4%)	2mo	$125,000	$101	52
911 Cordova St	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,403 (+8%)	10mo	$164,999	$118	48
1310 Petite Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,407 (+9%)	2mo	$129,900	$92	42
1459 Redman Blvd	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,150 (-11%)	2mo	$115,000	$100	40
11642 Petite Chalet Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (-15%)	7mo	$130,000	$118	37
1437 Farmview Ave	0.65mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,460 (+13%)	11mo	$90,000	$62	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $33,371
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.34×
• Total profit: $70,824
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,231/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.13mi
1202 Laredo Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	16d	1	0.22mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.37mi
11726 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,420	$1.18	24d	1	0.47mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	2d	1	0.48mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	24d	1	0.52mi
1386 Fairmeadows Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1512	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.54mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	12d	1	0.72mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.76mi
1310 Petite Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,495	$1.06	24d	1	0.77mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	4d	1	0.77mi
1516 Farmview Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1156	$1,295	$1.12	44d	1	0.81mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.81mi
12035 Krenning Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,125	$0.96	24d	1	0.89mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	4d	1	1.10mi
941 Pike Ct St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1431	$1,255	$0.88	24d	1	1.10mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,100	$1.04	2d	9	1.12mi
11185 Oak Parkway Ln St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1412	$1,075	$0.76	2d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   listed $39,900 Active
3. 2025-02-21
   status Pending
4. 2025-01-06
   listed $149,900 Active
5. 2006-05-02
   soldstatus $60,000
6. 2006-03-31
   soldstatus $85,000
7. 2001-01-18
   soldstatus $120,000
8. 1991-10-01
   soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,231 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,231 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,231
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,941
• After-tax cash flow: $6,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-58.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $39,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1991-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,231 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.