1203 Jefferson St · Bowie, TX 76230

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1950 8,799 sqft lot Est $111k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special!!! Assumable loan available!!! For sale

Key facts

• 8,799 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 41 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.1% in Bowie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#796 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bowie ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #469 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (422 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 42% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.39%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,880
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 W Greenwood Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	960 (+4%)	11mo	$130,000	$135	79
1106 Jefferson St	0.05mi	2/1.0	888 (-4%)	16mo	$100,000	$113	78
1111 Sanders St	0.07mi	2/1.0	812 (-12%)	2mo	$99,900	$123	75
1107 N Belcherville Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0	845 (-8%)	9mo	$94,000	$111	65
505 Live Oak St	0.46mi	2/1.0	976 (+6%)	6mo	$50,000	$51	64
205 W Greenwood Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0	812 (-12%)	16mo	$131,900	$162	63
611 Cherry St Unit A	0.40mi	2/1.0	880 (-5%)	13mo	$34,500	$39	63
809 Lowrie St	0.37mi	2/1.5	840 (-9%)	23mo	$129,500	$154	46
602 Pillar St	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (+7%)	16mo	$119,000	$120	41
608 Hodge St	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+14%)	7mo	$125,000	$118	39
108 Raymond St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+4%)	22mo	$139,000	$145	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $7,694
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $31,051
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76230

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,070/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $607

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 E Nelson St Unit B Bowie, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$875	$1.29	1d	1	0.42mi
1003 Rock St Unit 7 Bowie, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	10d	1	0.61mi
1312 Highway 81 N Bowie, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,250	$1.23	1d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-01
   listed $69,000 Active
3. 2022-09-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,070 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,263 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$193/yr (+$16/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,070
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $2,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$627
• After-tax cash flow: $2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bowie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810990
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,720
• Composite: 31.99/100
• National rank: #5836
• State rank: #469 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bowie

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #796
• US rank: #14499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bowie, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,885

Population outlook (Montague County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,216 people
• By 2030: 17,603 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 16,451 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 15,424 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 13,365 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 10,998 · -39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montague

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.7) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.5pp · 2024: -77.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.7 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+70.1 2008: R+58.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.69%
• Current HPI: 204.0919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2022-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,070 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.