9850 Lily St N #117 · Pinellas Park, FL 33782

$89,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 830 sqft · Condo public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1969 $525/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPPORTUNITY AWAITS: This home is located in Springwood Villas, an active 55+ community. The home has 3 bedrooms 2 full baths, and a covered carport. The Springwood community has a heated swimming pool, clubhouse and shuffleboard court. This property is eligible under the Freddie Mac First Look Initiative through 05/29/26

Key facts

• Shuffleboard court
• Clubhouse
• Heated swimming pool

Tags

• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: clubhouse, pool, street lights, deed restrictions; Senior community; No pets allowed
• Financial info: Monthly condo/HOA fee: $525; Total annual fees: $6,300; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fees required); Association approval required; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, pool, trash, water, sewer, maintenance of structure and grounds, common area taxes, recreational facilities, escrow reserves fund

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Fire hydrant on site
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a villa
• Exterior features: Awnings; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Concrete floors
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.0% in Pinellas Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#170 in FL, #2,546 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.3%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.50%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $7,391
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $20,770
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33782

• Rents YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$525
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,427

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $456	+0% $430	+5% $405	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $352	+0% $430	+5% $508	+10% $586
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $453	base $430	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9911 Dahlia St #38 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	8d	1	0.07mi
9505 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$2,706	$2.58	3d	19	0.24mi
4973 91st Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	14d	1	0.47mi
4973 91st Ave Unit 12 (C) Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	15d	1	0.47mi
10321 Larchmont Pl N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	25d	1	0.47mi
5641 94th Ter N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$2,200	$2.06	8d	1	0.62mi
4701 88th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,853	$2.17	11d	20	0.64mi
10770 US Highway 19 N #605 Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	25d	1	0.66mi
4940 87th Ave Unit C Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	25d	1	0.77mi
8400 49th St N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	707	$1,749	$2.47	2d	22	0.90mi
8851 US Highway 19 N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,850	$2.87	2d	23	0.90mi
5865 92nd Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$2,400	$2.26	18d	1	0.91mi
5501 110th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1001	$2,317	$2.31	2d	12	0.94mi
6132 100th Cir N Pinellas Park, FL	3.0	1.0	901	$1,995	$2.21	25d	1	1.12mi
4771 78th Ave N Pinellas Park, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,640	$1.82	24d	1	1.23mi
7911 52nd Way N Pinellas Park, FL	4.0	1.0	1036	$2,500	$2.41	25d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $525 · $6,300/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-05-09
    listed $89,900 Active
14. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus $94,800
15. 1998-06-08
    soldstatus $35,500
16. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $33,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − HOA: −$6,300
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,350
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $4,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pinellas Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #2546

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinellas Park, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 50,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,461
• Household income: $66,461
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 486.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 12% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.17%
• Current HPI: 314.1689
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+168.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $94,800 Public Records
• 1998-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $35,500 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.