76069 Estuary Way · Jacksonville, FL 32097

$458,480

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,609 sqft · Land · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 7,200 sqft lot $273/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! NEWLY BUILT!! Lennar's Sierra Bonus floor plan features 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bathrooms, bonus room and a spacious 3-car garage. This thoughtfully designed home includes white cabinets with white quartz kitchen countertops, 42'' recessed panel cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances including a range, dishwasher, microwave, and refrigerator. Tile flooring is installed in all wet areas and extended into the family room, dining area, and hallways. Additional features include blinds throughout, a screened lanai, sprinkler system, and water heater. Enjoy peace of mind with a one-year builder warranty, a dedicated customer service program, and 24-hour emergency service. (Condition

Key facts

• Newly built
• White cabinets
• Screened lanai

Tags

• NEWLY BUILT
• WHITE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING
• SCREENED LANAI
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $458k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-986 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (38.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $281,862 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.21%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $186,650
• Equity at exit: $413,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $598,475
• Equity at exit: $890,726

Cash invested: $128,374 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,819 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,404
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,129/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$273
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-986

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,066

Max offer price $284,352

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-726	-5% $-856	+0% $-986	+5% $-1,115	+10% $-1,245
Rent	-10% $-1,208	-5% $-1,097	+0% $-986	+5% $-874	+10% $-763
Rate	-1.0pp $-755	-0.5pp $-869	base $-986	+0.5pp $-1,105	+1.0pp $-1,225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,620
• Closing costs: $13,754
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75470 Sunberry Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	4.0	2903	$3,150	$1.09	21d	1	0.70mi
65013 Lagoon Forest Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,800	$1.25	12d	1	0.87mi
75094 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2193	$2,495	$1.14	3d	1	0.87mi
75094 Glenspring Way Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	1.02mi
75215 Fern Creek Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2898	$2,900	$1.00	16d	1	1.07mi
75008 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,300	$1.24	25d	1	1.15mi
75047 Brookwood Dr Yulee, FL	5.0	3.0	3300	$3,405	$1.03	5d	1	1.23mi
75075 Morning Glen Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,399	$1.29	6d	1	1.27mi
76195 Deerwood Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	2.5	2757	$2,475	$0.90	25d	1	1.34mi
70305 Winding River Dr Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2042	$2,500	$1.22	25d	1	1.39mi
65303 River Glen Pkwy Yulee, FL	4.0	2.0	2160	$2,400	$1.11	25d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $273 · $3,276/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   listed $468,480 Active
3. 2025-12-17
   soldstatus $703,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,129 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,129 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,682
• − Property taxes: −$4,129
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,706
• − Management: −$2,706
• − HOA: −$3,276
• − Depreciation: −$13,338
• Taxable loss: −$20,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,873
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $468,480 realMLS
• 2025-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $703,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1661.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,129 · +1661.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.