77 Road 5231 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2020 0.40 ac lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $174k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy a large, clean yard with ample space for parking, storage, or additional structures. Located in one of the fastest growing areas in the nation Cleveland Texas! This home has great size with three bedrooms and two full baths!Extremely large yard for entertaining, a large pool, or storage shed. Plenty of space for all!

Key facts

• Large pool
• Large yard
• Ample space

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• AMPLE SPACE
• LARGE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020
• Construction: 1,444 building area
• Exterior features: Lot includes other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (First floor)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (919 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.94%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,741
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: 3.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Road 5840 Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-6%)	1mo	$172,000	$127	57
662 Road 5846	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-12%)	6mo	$255,000	$200	56
163 Road 5248	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,633 (+13%)	20mo	$235,000	$144	39
101 County Road 5221 Rd	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,547 (+7%)	18mo	$190,000	$123	38
735 Road 5714	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,600 (+11%)	17mo	$185,990	$116	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,394
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,438
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $234	+0% $183	+5% $132	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $105	+0% $183	+5% $261	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $229	base $183	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Road 5248 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	910	$1,680	$1.85	16d	1	0.40mi
662 Road 590110 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	14d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $180,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    listed $180,000 Active 323-char remark
16. 2026-04-08
    historical
17. 2025-12-10
    price $184,999
18. 2025-05-24
    price $195,000
19. 2025-04-08
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,450 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,450 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,697
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,891
• − Management: −$1,891
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$147
• After-tax cash flow: $2,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $184,999 HARMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listed $205,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+33.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,450 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.