Canby Plan · Happy Valley, OR 97015

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. COMING SOON! Currently under construction. Welcome to Shadowbrook, a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where your dream home is coming to life. We are excited to offer a modern brand new 2026 3 bed, 2 bath home for sale, featuring approximately 1500.80 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Located in Clackamas, this soon-to-be-completed property will offer the perfect blend of modern design and timeless comfort. Construction is underway, and soon you'll be able to step inside and experience open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, natural light home has to offer. The spacious kitchen is beautifully designed with a kitchen island, stainless st

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Kitchen island
• Listed 38 days

Tags

• MODERN BRAND NEW HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEEP SINGLE BOWL SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $199,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home
• Exterior features: Located at 13640 SE Highway 212, Clackamas, OR 97015

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Canby plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $209,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $106,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 2.5% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#76 in OR, #3,386 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• North Clackamas SD 12 (suburban): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #22 of 58 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $736 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.22%
• DSCR: 3.19
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,500
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 97.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13640 SE Highway 212 #10	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	1mo	$100,000	$69	84
13900 SE Highway 212 #62	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-3%)	4mo	$84,000	$58	81
13640 SE Highway 212 #57	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+4%)	7mo	$159,500	$102	77
13900 SE Highway 212 #31	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	9mo	$92,000	$66	73
13900 SE Highway 212 #185	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$145,000	$112	67
15146 SE 122nd Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	0mo	$181,000	$120	66
15174 SE 122nd Ave #87	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+3%)	1mo	$198,000	$129	64
13640 SE Highway 212 #89	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-13%)	8mo	$40,000	$31	64
13900 SE Hwy 212 #16	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	5mo	$105,000	$81	63
16368 SE 135th Ave #10	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$108,000	$83	58
13640 SE Highway 212 #69	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	10mo	$105,200	$81	57
15116 SE 122nd Ave #58	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	8mo	$130,000	$97	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $59,396
• Equity at exit: $15,879

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $146,949
• Equity at exit: $9,208

Cash invested: $29,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97015

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$133 /mo · $1,598/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $1,223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $106,500

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,625
• Closing costs: $3,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13300 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,290	$2.80	2d	6	0.40mi
12301 SE Hubbard Rd Clackamas, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,063	$2.20	10d	4	0.80mi
13898 SE Rogers Ln Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,599	$1.75	43d	1	0.91mi
14439 SE Oregon Trail Dr Clackamas, OR	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,615	$1.58	1d	1	0.98mi
14095 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,695	$1.85	43d	1	1.15mi
14154 SE Summerfield Loop Unit 14194 Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1125	$2,250	$2.00	24d	1	1.28mi
14194 SE Summerfield Loop Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1125	$2,250	$2.00	24d	1	1.28mi
13120 SE 128th Ave Happy Valley, OR	3.0	2.5	1861	$2,900	$1.56	43d	1	1.37mi
13777 SE 115th Ave Clackamas, OR	3.0	3.0	2088	$3,495	$1.67	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $209,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $199,900 Active 1500-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,966
• − Property taxes: −$1,598
• − Insurance: −$532
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$3,098
• Taxable income: $13,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,313
• After-tax cash flow: $11,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and ample living space. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's value in the market.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase the home's value.
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can increase the home's value in the market.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's value in the market. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency, which can increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and can increase the home's value in the market. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Clackamas SD 12
• NCES district ID: 4108830
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $60,217
• Composite: 32.1/100
• National rank: #5807
• State rank: #22 of 58 in OR

Livability — Happy Valley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #3386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 34,567
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,433
• Household income: $87,333
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -170.50%
• Current HPI: 295.7295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B