158 Chiquita Camino · Sonoma, CA 95476

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1966 Good condition Est $145k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

158 Chiquita Camino, located in the Moon Valley Residential Community. A calm, well-kept community nestled in a peaceful natural setting. This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home features large windows that fill the space with natural light, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. New flooring throughout adds a fresh touch and enhances the home's comfortable layout. Perfectly positioned within the community, this home provides a peaceful and private setting while being only moments from all that Sonoma has to offer, including boutique shopping, acclaimed dining, celebrated wineries, scenic hiking trails, and the historic Sonoma Plaza. An exceptional opportunity to enjoy living in one of the community

Key facts

• Large windows
• Scenic hiking trails
• New flooring

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• PEACEFUL PRIVATE SETTING
• SCENIC HIKING TRAILS
• HISTORIC SONOMA PLAZA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No; Land lease amount listed separately
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in Sonoma area; Moon Valley Residential Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide)
• Construction: Roadliner make; Dualwide manufacturer; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; Stacked washer/dryer included
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 1.4% in Sonoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#146 in CA, #4,943 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.99%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,000
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Paseo Palencia	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	9mo	$215,000	$215	89
298 La Serena Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	10mo	$145,000	$145	88
270 Manuella Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+4%)	2mo	$160,000	$154	88
160 Chiquita Camino	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+12%)	1mo	$199,000	$178	77
341 El Castillo Vista Way #341	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+8%)	10mo	$199,000	$184	74
154 Chiquita Camino	0.05mi	2/1.0	900 (-10%)	8mo	$78,000	$87	71
148 Chiquita Camino	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	11mo	$140,000	$123	65
219 Cazares Cir	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+10%)	21mo	$75,000	$68	64
312 Janero Pl	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+15%)	17mo	$115,000	$100	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $55,579
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $134,991
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,242 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $1,389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
790 2nd St W Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	975	$2,660	$2.73	14d	3	0.54mi
655 W Spain St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1349	$3,525	$2.61	14d	1	0.61mi
663 Spring Ln Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	44d	1	0.64mi
434 Bernice Ln Unit 1546207P Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$4,564	$4.66	14d	1	0.65mi
208 Todd Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	14d	1	0.65mi
1211 Broadway Unit 1213 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	23d	1	0.70mi
342 Church St Sonoma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,600	$3.71	44d	1	0.70mi
1207 Broadway Unit 1209 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,750	$3.12	44d	1	0.70mi
1207 Broadway Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	23d	1	0.70mi
340 Church St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1282	$3,750	$2.93	44d	1	0.71mi
210 Tuscany Pl Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	14d	1	0.90mi
21 Ramon St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	23d	1	1.00mi
19019 5th St W Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$3,400	$2.64	14d	1	1.14mi
336 Las Casitas Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.5	1158	$2,500	$2.16	44d	1	1.23mi
126 Blue Wing Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,975	$2.57	14d	2	1.29mi
126 Blue Wing Dr #11 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	14d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,112
• − Management: −$3,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $15,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,616
• After-tax cash flow: $13,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with fresh updates and a well-maintained exterior, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Trim and prune bushes — Maintains a well-maintained appearance for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Trim and prune bushes — Maintains a well-maintained appearance for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sonoma

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #4943

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonoma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 35,196
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $160,000 BAREIS