1105 Estelle · Lake City, AR 72437

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1980 8,276 sqft lot $118/sqft · 7% above area Est $145k · 7% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to move into, this is his families home and he has lived there for years and had been putting new features like shingles, central heat and air, stove, flooring. He has put new doors and new windows so that this home is one of the best in the neighborhood. see it before it's gone. New price

Key facts

• New doors
• New flooring
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.2% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#180 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverside School District (rural): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #103 of 238 in AR (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.37%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,598
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: 7.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1003 Sixth	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-1%)	2mo	$219,000	$168	80
1003 Sixth	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-1%)	2mo	$219,000	$168	78
1102 Estelle	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,121 (-15%)	2mo	$145,000	$129	73
204 Catfish Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,161 (-12%)	1mo	$167,500	$144	68
806 Ladd	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,325 (+1%)	2mo	$130,000	$98	65
1997 Teal Cv	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-4%)	2mo	$194,000	$154	55
2001 Mallard Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,339 (+2%)	7mo	$212,500	$159	54
106 Stone	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-12%)	2mo	$121,400	$105	52
1009 Opal Cir	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,121 (-15%)	4mo	$133,900	$119	46
100 Dennis St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,172 (-11%)	8mo	$150,000	$128	45
911 Grimes St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,121 (-15%)	10mo	$85,000	$76	39
106 Waterfowl	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,435 (+9%)	8mo	$238,000	$166	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $103,237
• Equity at exit: $139,179

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.66×
• Total profit: $288,654
• Equity at exit: $299,755

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72437

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $777/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,192

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1997 Teal Cv Lake City, AR	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,575	$1.25	43d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $154,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 New Listing 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 New Listing 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $154,900 New Listing 2 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $154,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Ready to move into, this is his families home and he has lived there for years and had been putting new features like shingles, central heat and air, stove, flooring. He has put new doors and new windows so that this home is one of the best in the neighborhood. see it before it's gone. New price

15. 2026-04-16
    price $157,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Ready to move into, this is his families home and he has lived there for years and had been putting new features like shingles, central heat and air, stove, flooring. He has put new doors and new windows so that this home is one of the best in the neighborhood. see it before it's gone. New price

16. 2026-03-11
    price $159,500 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Ready to move into, this is his families home and he has lived there for years and had been putting new features like shingles, central heat and air, stove, flooring. He has put new doors and new windows so that this home is one of the best in the neighborhood. see it before it's gone. New price

17. 2026-02-22
    listed $169,500 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Ready to move into, this is his families home and he has lived there for years and had been putting new features like shingles, central heat and air, stove, flooring. He has put new doors and new windows so that this home is one of the best in the neighborhood. see it before it's gone. New price

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $777 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $991 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$214/yr (+$18/mo · 27.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$777
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $1,141
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$274
• After-tax cash flow: $3,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside School District
• NCES district ID: 0500012
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $37,959
• Composite: 30.82/100
• National rank: #6136
• State rank: #103 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #14568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, AR
• Population (ZIP): 3,386

Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.97%
• Current HPI: 295.1637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $154,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $157,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $159,500 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $169,500 NEABOR MLS

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $777 · +259.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.