503 Chestnut Ridge Rd · Dover Plains, NY 12522

$548,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1992 2.00 ac lot Est $585k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your own private sanctuary on two serene acres in the town of Unionvale. This charming oversized ranch home offers the perfect blend of comfort and nature, featuring a cleared, landscaped backyard ideal for gardening or peaceful afternoons, bordered by partly wooded grounds for ultimate privacy. Inside, the warmth of hardwood floors and a wood-burning stove in the dining area creates an inviting atmosphere for quiet country evenings. The open floorplan flows seamlessly into a family room with cathedral ceilings and a fireplace, while French doors lead you out to an expansive deck—the perfect spot to enjoy the fresh air and views of your rolling landscape. Complete with a gre

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Cathedral ceilings
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• CLEARED LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• PARTLY WOODED GROUNDS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Driveway; Total parking for 12 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric service; Water connected; No sewer; Cable connected; Trash collection (private); Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Greenhouse; No fencing; Back yard; Front yard; Garden; Landscaped grounds; Partially wooded lot; Cleared areas; Rolling slope

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen / open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Wall/window unit(s); Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Wood heating; Wood-burning stove (in family room)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan with open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Recessed lighting; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer (electric dryer hookup); Inside laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Tankless water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $548k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($166/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $471k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $471k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#818 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: commute C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Dover Union Free School District (rural): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #433 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dover Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,509 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 296 students, 71% FRL); Dover Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 301 students, 68% FRL); Dover High School (math 92% / reading 74%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 467 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $153k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($515k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $548k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $470,903 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $585,232
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Highview Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,592 (-14%)	1mo	$503,500	$316	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $299,358
• Equity at exit: $493,682

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $880,909
• Equity at exit: $1,064,643

Cash invested: $153,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12522

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,874
• Tax from tax record: −$604 /mo · $7,250/yr
• Insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$989
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,692

Max offer price $548,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,000
• Closing costs: $16,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   listed $548,000 Active
3. 2012-04-03
   soldstatus $265,000
4. 2011-11-21
   historical
5. 2011-05-02
   listed
6. 2011-04-30
   historical
7. 2010-09-08
   listed
8. 2007-07-23
   soldstatus $350,000
9. 2007-07-12
   soldstatus $350,000
10. 2007-06-19
    price $386,000
11. 2007-06-19
    historical
12. 2006-11-02
    listed $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,250 · $604/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,256 · $688/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,005/yr (+$84/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,697
• − Property taxes: −$7,250
• − Insurance: −$2,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,521
• − Management: −$4,521
• − Depreciation: −$15,942
• Taxable loss: −$9,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,199
• After-tax cash flow: $2,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609210
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 40.25/100
• National rank: #3768
• State rank: #433 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dover Plains

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #818
• US rank: #15806

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living B Crime A Employment D- Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,074

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.50%
• Current HPI: 262.8121
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+56.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Listed $548,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2011-11-21 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2011-05-02 Listed — HGMLS
• 2011-04-30 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2010-09-08 Listed — HGMLS
• 2007-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-12 Sold (MLS) $350,000 HGMLS
• 2007-06-19 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2007-06-19 Price Changed $386,000 HGMLS
• 2006-11-02 Listed $350,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,250 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.