16379 Water Way · Delray Beach, FL 33484

$395,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,605 sqft · Townhouse public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1983 $559/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 4BR/2.1BA townhouse in the sought-after Country Lake community. Features lake views, fenced exterior space, and access to pool, playground, and 24/7 security. Pets allowed. HOA includes lawn care and pool service. Close to shops, restaurants, and excellent schools. Seller motivated!!! Schedule your showing today! Buyer and buyer's agent are responsible for verifying all HOA information, requirements, fees, and restrictions directly with the HOA.

Key facts

• $559 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $559; Community amenities: pool, tennis courts, playground, park; HOA covers cable TV, insurance, grounds maintenance, security, and common areas

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Security: Key card entry
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; 2 stories; Resale condition; Faces north
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Built as part of a 2-story building
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Closet cabinetry; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $380k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Delray Beach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in FL, #3,160 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orchard View Elementary School (math 48% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 596 students, 76% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Spanish River Community High School (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #63 of 667 statewide, top 10%, 2,578 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,797/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 991% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $347,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-71,879
• Equity at exit: $58,896

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-57,272
• Equity at exit: $34,152

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33484

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,797 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,939/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$559
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$797
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,059

Max offer price $358,459

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-95	+0% $-207	+5% $-319	+10% $-430
Rent	-10% $-507	-5% $-357	+0% $-207	+5% $-57	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-106	base $-207	+0.5pp $-309	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5241 Jog Ln Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1806	$3,650	$2.02	6d	1	0.13mi
16415 Berry Way Delray Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	1605	$3,000	$1.87	17d	1	0.18mi
5072 Alencia Ct Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1638	$4,500	$2.75	25d	1	0.20mi
4983 Garden Dr Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$15,000	$7.50	25d	1	0.27mi
16658 La Mesa Dr Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1779	$4,000	$2.25	25d	1	0.30mi
4801 S Citation Dr Delray Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1180	$3,745	$3.17	0d	37	0.30mi
5241 Breadfruit Cir Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$3,500	$2.39	21d	1	0.42mi
16075 Sims Rd #203 Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$3,900	$2.27	25d	1	0.46mi
2023 Valencia Dr Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$3,895	$2.28	15d	1	0.53mi
2200 Bloods Grove Cir Delray Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1611	$4,043	$2.51	6d	5	0.61mi
5605 Forest Oaks Ter Delray Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2092	$10,000	$4.78	14d	1	0.65mi
16218 Sierra Palms Dr Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1474	$3,250	$2.20	21d	1	0.69mi
599 Burgundy M Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1097	$2,100	$1.91	4d	1	0.87mi
804 Foxpointe Cir Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2027	$8,000	$3.95	25d	1	1.09mi
3250 Lakeview Blvd Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2071	$7,900	$3.81	25d	1	1.10mi
3313 Sherwood Blvd Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$6,000	$3.78	13d	1	1.11mi
16129 Poppyseed Cir #1603 Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1652	$3,250	$1.97	3d	1	1.14mi
16129 Poppyseed Cir #1603 Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1652	$3,350	$2.03	21d	1	1.14mi
16089 Poppyseed Cir #2006 Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1652	$3,200	$1.94	25d	1	1.20mi
1845 Palm Cove Blvd Unit 8-103 Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1065	$2,500	$2.35	19d	1	1.27mi
6077 Lake Hibiscus Dr Unit 6077 Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$3,200	$2.04	19d	1	1.29mi
1740 Palm Cove Blvd Apt 103 Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1065	$2,900	$2.72	25d	1	1.29mi
167 Gramercy Square Dr Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$3,200	$1.82	6d	1	1.41mi
2736 Carnation Ct Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,400	$2.27	6d	1	1.47mi
2736 Carnation Ct Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,400	$2.27	22d	1	1.47mi
114 E Astor Cir Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$3,000	$1.62	14d	1	1.49mi
14 Astor Cir Delray Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$3,400	$1.83	0d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $559 · $6,708/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $395,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $395,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $395,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $395,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-03-06
    price $395,000
13. 2026-01-30
    listed $405,000 Active
14. 2026-01-23
    historical $405,000
15. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $370,000
16. 2001-10-22
    soldstatus $124,000
17. 1993-08-18
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,939 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,939 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$4,939
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,645
• − Management: −$3,645
• − HOA: −$6,708
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$8,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Delray Beach

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 123,167
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,208
• Household income: $62,151
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 13% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.73%
• Current HPI: 254.5016
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+426.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $395,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $405,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-23 Coming Soon $405,000 Beaches MLS
• 2022-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $370,000 Public Records
• 2001-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,939 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.