2802 Ocean Valley Dr · South Fulton, GA 30349

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1968 8,581 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Such great potential in this 3 bed, 1 bath home on a pretty treed lot in Atlanta. Sunny living room, kitchen with breakfast bar, and bright bedrooms offer lots of opportunities to make this home your own. With some TLC, this could be your perfect home! Close to shopping, eateries, parks, Hartsfield-Jackson International, and major roadways. Don't miss this one! * * * This property is eligible under the First Look Initiative. All Owner Occupant offers will be responded to after 7 days on the market and Investor offers will be responded to after 30 days. However, all offers can be submitted during the First Look period. * * *

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to eateries
• Close to shopping

Tags

• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST BAR
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO EATERIES
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 4.6% in South Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bethune Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 524 students, 100% FRL); Mcnair Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #433 of 470 statewide, top 93%, 888 students, 100% FRL); Banneker High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #28 of 424 statewide, top 7%, 1,610 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 41% district-wide (59 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 655 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.88%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,060
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2668 Beacon Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+9%)	15mo	$175,000	$163	60
2960 Harper Valley Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (+9%)	0mo	$265,000	$245	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $99,541
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $247,654
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30349

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,018/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $929

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $824	-5% $796	+0% $767	+5% $739	+10% $711
Rent	-10% $617	-5% $692	+0% $767	+5% $842	+10% $917
Rate	-1.0pp $818	-0.5pp $793	base $767	+0.5pp $741	+1.0pp $715

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2865 Spruce Point Rd Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	1050	$1,910	$1.82	45d	1	0.14mi
5850 Old Bill Cook Rd Atlanta, GA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	45d	1	0.71mi
2300 Flat Shoals Rd Unit 2 Riverdale, GA	2.0	3.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	26d	1	0.90mi
5750 Buffington Rd Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1142	$1,642	$1.44	0d	18	1.02mi
5740 Buffington Rd Atlanta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	964	$2,181	$2.26	0d	15	1.14mi
5515 Scofield Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,788	$1.61	12d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-28
   price $100,000
3. 2026-02-20
   status Back On Market
4. 2026-02-04
   status Under Contract
5. 2026-01-19
   price $105,000
6. 2025-12-11
   price $110,000
7. 2025-11-05
   price $120,000
8. 2025-10-03
   price $125,000
9. 2025-09-04
   price $135,000
10. 2025-08-07
    price $140,000
11. 2025-06-26
    listed $150,000 New
12. 2025-05-31
    historical
13. 2025-05-31
    historical
14. 2025-04-21
    price $112,000
15. 2025-04-21
    price $112,000
16. 2025-04-14
    price $114,000
17. 2025-04-14
    price $114,000
18. 2025-04-09
    price $116,000
19. 2025-04-09
    price $116,000
20. 2025-02-20
    listed $125,000 Active
21. 2025-02-20
    listed $125,000 New
22. 2018-08-13
    historical
23. 2018-07-21
    price $75,000
24. 2018-07-06
    listed $100,000 New
25. 2002-03-22
    soldstatus $87,000
26. 2001-05-24
    soldstatus $58,500
27. 1977-04-05
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,018
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $8,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,951
• After-tax cash flow: $7,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — South Fulton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Fulton, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 127,674
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 79,872
• Household income: $67,023
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4258.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% White 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.01%
• Current HPI: 407.99
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+325.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $100,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $105,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $110,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $120,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $135,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $140,000 GAMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listed $150,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $112,000 FMLS
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $112,000 GAMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $114,000 FMLS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $114,000 GAMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $116,000 FMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $116,000 GAMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $125,000 FMLS
• 2018-08-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2018-07-21 Price Changed $75,000 GAMLS
• 2018-07-06 Listed $100,000 GAMLS
• 2002-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1977-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,018 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.