1404 E 9th St · Panama City, FL
Flood risk 6/10 · Moderate
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.7%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 105°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.3/10.0
- Schools +3.6/10.0
- Livability +3.6/5.0
- Rent growth +2.6/5.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$139,900
1404 E 9th St · Panama City, FL 32401
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily
public records
· 85 Days on market
Built 1962
9,627 sqft lot
2-car garage
$93/sqft
· 36% below area
Est $220k · 36% under
↓ 25% since listing
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Opportunity awaits with this spacious 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom situated on an oversized lot near Panama City. Offering 1,504 square feet of living space, this home features tile flooring, a bright living and dining room combination, and a large family room with a cozy fireplace. The open kitchen includes a breakfast bar and overlooks the main living areas, creating a functional layout with plenty of potential. The primary suite features a private bath, while the additional bedrooms are spacious and filled with natural light. Outside, the detached garage provides added storage, workspace, or parking options, and the oversized yard offers room to expand or create your ideal outdoor space.
Key facts
- Large family room
- Oversized yard
- Private bath
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
- Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
- Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Jinks Middle School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 570 students, 70% FRL); Bay High School (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 1,255 students, 53% FRL).
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 332 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $2,000/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 18% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$131,506
(6.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.43% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.68%
- Cash-on-cash
- 19.23%
- DSCR
- 1.86
- GRM
- 5.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $219,658
- List price
- $139,900
- Delta
- -36.31%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 729 Kirklin Ave | 0.24mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,402 (-7%) | 2mo | $245,900 | $175 | 70 |
| 601 Cypress Ave | 0.40mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,500 (-0%) | 9mo | $385,000 | $257 | 69 |
| 1807 E 9th St | 0.28mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,375 (-9%) | 4mo | $320,000 | $233 | 64 |
| 810 Maple Ave | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,552 (+3%) | 12mo | $200,000 | $129 | 64 |
| 706 Kirklin Ave | 0.33mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,380 (-8%) | 2mo | $265,000 | $192 | 64 |
| 1045 La Paloma Ter | 0.42mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,453 (-3%) | 7mo | $430,000 | $296 | 64 |
| 804 Kirklin Ave | 0.26mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,375 (-9%) | 8mo | $313,000 | $228 | 62 |
| 605 Maple Ave | 0.45mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,405 (-7%) | 3mo | $268,000 | $191 | 60 |
| 918 N Center Ave | 0.70mi | 4/2.0 | 1,542 (+2%) | 4mo | $246,620 | $160 | 60 |
| 708 Cactus Ave | 0.19mi | 3/1.0 (-1) | 1,308 (-13%) | 1mo | $175,000 | $134 | 59 |
| 1409 E 6th Ct | 0.30mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,320 (-12%) | 4mo | $249,000 | $189 | 57 |
| 809 E 10th Ct | 0.52mi | 4/2.0 | 1,300 (-14%) | 10mo | $262,950 | $202 | 45 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.45% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 8.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.31×
- Total profit
- $12,325
- Equity at exit
- $20,860
10-year hold
- IRR
- 15.2%
- Equity multiple
- 2.09×
- Total profit
- $42,783
- Equity at exit
- $12,096
Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 25 active · 10 under contract
- Months of supply
- 8.8 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $259,000 ($201/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 92 d
- This list price
- 4% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -27.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 32401
- Home prices YoY
- -32.9%
- Rents YoY
- 0.5%
- Active inventory
- 332
- Price-to-rent
- 5.8×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,000 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$734
- Tax from tax record
- −$161 /mo · $1,926/yr
- Insurance
- −$58
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$420
- Net cashflow
- $628
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,206
Max offer price
$139,900
Occupancy floor
64%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $707 | -5% $667 | +0% $628 | +5% $588 | +10% $548 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $470 | -5% $549 | +0% $628 | +5% $707 | +10% $786 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $698 | -0.5pp $663 | base $628 | +0.5pp $591 | +1.0pp $555 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $34,975
- Closing costs
- $4,197
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 4 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 329 N Palo Alto Ave Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $1,950 | $1.50 | 62d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 300 Mercedes Ave Unit 1523335P Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1194 | $3,807 | $3.19 | 70d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 2623 E 16th St Unit A Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1250 | $1,625 | $1.30 | 70d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 222 N Gray Ave Panama City, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1953 | $1,650 | $0.84 | 70d | 1 | 1.27mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- HOA & community
- Short-term rentals allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spaces
- Utilities
- Electricity available
- Home design
- Single-story residenceResidential single-family zoning
- Construction
- Concrete and stucco exteriorComposition/shingle roof
- Exterior features
- Open porch/patioChain link fencingPaved lot
Interior
- Kitchen
- Kitchen on first floor
- Bedrooms
- Primary bedroom (first floor)
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Open porch
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $139,900 Active 85 DOM
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2026-08-07days on market $139,900 Active 84 DOM
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2026-08-06days on market $139,900 Active 83 DOM
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2026-08-05days on market $139,900 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $139,900 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $139,900 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-30price $139,900 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $149,900 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $149,900 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $149,900 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-08days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-07-04days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $149,900 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-19days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $149,900 Active 24 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,926 · $161/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,926 · $161/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,002
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,837
- − Property taxes
- −$1,926
- − Insurance
- −$700
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,920
- − Management
- −$1,920
- − Depreciation
- −$4,070
- Taxable income
- $5,630
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,351
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,181/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
45/100
Moderate rehab
Est. rehab $37,600–$67,680 screening
This home requires moderate renovations, focusing on updating the kitchen and landscaping to significantly increase its value.
Components & finishes AI
Flooring tile
Repairs flagged
- Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
- Major kitchen countertops — damaged and worn
- Minor exterior landscaping — some overgrown areas
Value-add opportunities
- Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value ↑
- Both landscape exterior — improved landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Merriam Cherry Street Elementary
F
FL #1,896/2,144
Nat'l #26,716/41,679
Middle
Jinks Middle School
F
FL #348/571
Nat'l #5,602/14,009
High
Bay High School
F
FL #367/667
Nat'l #9,497/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Bay
- NCES district ID
- 1200090
- Math proficiency
- 51% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 51% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $47,740
- Composite
- 43.41/100
- National rank
- #3014
- State rank
- #29 of 73 in FL
B
Composite livability gradescore 72/100
Livability — Panama City
- Score
- 72/100
- State rank
- #350
- US rank
- #5823
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime F
Employment D-
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings A-
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Panama City, FL
- County
- Bay County · 206,264 people
- City population
- 91,445
- Metro
- Panama City, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 18,947
- Household income
- $52,523
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 18% of renters
Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 206,264 people
- By 2030
- 217,740 · +5.6%
- By 2040
- 238,738 · +15.7%
- By 2050
- 255,545 · +23.9%
- By 2075
- 288,295 · +39.8%
- By 2100
- 288,638 · +39.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Bay
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -142.12%
- Current HPI
- 290.3312
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.45%
- Metro
- Panama City, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
-25.1% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-02 Price Changed $149,900 CPARMLS
- 2026-05-15 Listed $159,900 CPARMLS
- 2024-07-26 Price Changed $190,000 CPARMLS
- 2024-03-29 Price Changed $195,000 CPARMLS
- 2024-02-03 Listed $200,000 CPARMLS
Property tax history
+15.3%/yrLatest (2025): $1,926 · +218.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…