2629 Wilmington Rd · New Castle Northwest, PA 16105

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,843 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1930 0.62 ac lot $95/sqft · 31% below area Est $255k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Custom Two-Story 3 bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, comfort and opportunity. Eat-in Kitchen with ample space for entertaining alond with formal dining room. Situated on a sizable lot, the property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Currently tenant-occupied, this home presents a great investment opportunity or could easily transition into the perfect family residence. The two-story layout offers a functional flow with generous living space, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Future expansion
• Two-story layout
• Sizable lot

Tags

• SIZABLE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• FUTURE EXPANSION
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• TWO-STORY LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACE

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $175,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$255,025) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-64/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in New Castle Northwest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#111 in PA, #870 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Neshannock Township SD (rural): math 38% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #133 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $175k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,025
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -31.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Bellaire Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+7%)	0mo	$317,000	$161	68
108 Okinawa Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,834 (-0%)	3mo	$340,000	$185	64
14 E Maitland Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,072 (+12%)	20mo	$200,000	$97	52
14 Fruitland Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,080 (+13%)	11mo	$315,000	$151	51
2928 Old Plank Rd	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,944 (+6%)	1mo	$147,500	$76	49
2968 Melvin Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,835 (-0%)	22mo	$208,000	$113	45
23 E Oakwood Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,094 (+14%)	15mo	$279,000	$133	38
3025 Spring Garden Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-12%)	2mo	$257,500	$159	37
116 E Maitland Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,668 (-10%)	20mo	$198,500	$119	36
34 Cochran Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-10%)	16mo	$330,000	$198	36
215 E Maitland Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (+12%)	7mo	$275,000	$133	36
64 Lattavo Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,048 (+11%)	22mo	$348,000	$170	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-28,609
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,988
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16105

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,213/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $174,055

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $44	+0% $-5	+5% $-55	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-71	+0% $-5	+5% $60	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $39	base $-5	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    price $199,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Custom Two-Story 3 bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, comfort and opportunity. Eat-in Kitchen with ample space for entertaining alond with formal dining room. Situated on a sizable lot, the property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Currently tenant-occupied, this home presents a great investment opportunity or could easily transition into the perfect family residence. The two-story layout offers a functional flow with generous living space, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining.

18. 2026-03-19
    listed $275,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Custom Two-Story 3 bedroom, 2-bath home offers space, comfort and opportunity. Eat-in Kitchen with ample space for entertaining alond with formal dining room. Situated on a sizable lot, the property offers plenty of room for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Currently tenant-occupied, this home presents a great investment opportunity or could easily transition into the perfect family residence. The two-story layout offers a functional flow with generous living space, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining.

19. 2002-11-25
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,213 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,213 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,213
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neshannock Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4216440
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,658
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2536
• State rank: #133 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle Northwest

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #870

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,195

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.26%
• Current HPI: 173.0332
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $199,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $275,000 West Penn MLS
• 2002-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,213 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.