2321 Watts Dr · Bakersfield, CA 93307

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1940 3.00 ac lot Est $187k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this package deal on 2 lots that total 19.55 acres. Lots of opportunities to utilize this piece of land. Property is ready for endless possibilities; farming, animals, solar panels, trucking, etc. There is a house 884sqft that was built in 1940 that was moved onto the property in 1979 that needs some TLC, but could also be used as an office. Property is in the Kern Delta Water district. Seller says there is septic, high speed fiber optic internet, 2 separate meters for PG & E, Cal Water, new plumbing, new windows, new roof, new a/c, and covered patio around the house/office. Seller financing available. Located in the city limits the general plan is for service industrial. Buyer to verify all data and suitability to buyer's intended use. Take a look at this property today to make your dreams a reality!

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.16%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,408
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
909 Casino St	0.50mi	2/1.0	962 (+9%)	12mo	$181,000	$188	52
1903 Lotus Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	968 (+10%)	23mo	$205,000	$212	25
900 Melwood St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (+15%)	21mo	$330,000	$325	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $957
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $48,114
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93307

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $373	+0% $321	+5% $269	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $253	+0% $321	+5% $389	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $359	base $321	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
900 Melwood St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1014	$2,500	$2.47	4d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2022-01-04
   soldstatus $750,000 Sold 826-char remark

   Show marketing remark (826 chars)

   Check out this package deal on 2 lots that total 19.55 acres. Lots of opportunities to utilize this piece of land. Property is ready for endless possibilities; farming, animals, solar panels, trucking, etc. There is a house 884sqft that was built in 1940 that was moved onto the property in 1979 that needs some TLC, but could also be used as an office. Property is in the Kern Delta Water district. Seller says there is septic, high speed fiber optic internet, 2 separate meters for PG & E, Cal Water, new plumbing, new windows, new roof, new a/c, and covered patio around the house/office. Seller financing available. Located in the city limits the general plan is for service industrial. Buyer to verify all data and suitability to buyer's intended use. Take a look at this property today to make your dreams a reality!

4. 2022-01-04
   soldstatus $750,000

   Show marketing remark (826 chars)

   Check out this package deal on 2 lots that total 19.55 acres. Lots of opportunities to utilize this piece of land. Property is ready for endless possibilities; farming, animals, solar panels, trucking, etc. There is a house 884sqft that was built in 1940 that was moved onto the property in 1979 that needs some TLC, but could also be used as an office. Property is in the Kern Delta Water district. Seller says there is septic, high speed fiber optic internet, 2 separate meters for PG & E, Cal Water, new plumbing, new windows, new roof, new a/c, and covered patio around the house/office. Seller financing available. Located in the city limits the general plan is for service industrial. Buyer to verify all data and suitability to buyer's intended use. Take a look at this property today to make your dreams a reality!

5. 2021-11-23
   status Pending 826-char remark

   Show marketing remark (826 chars)

   Check out this package deal on 2 lots that total 19.55 acres. Lots of opportunities to utilize this piece of land. Property is ready for endless possibilities; farming, animals, solar panels, trucking, etc. There is a house 884sqft that was built in 1940 that was moved onto the property in 1979 that needs some TLC, but could also be used as an office. Property is in the Kern Delta Water district. Seller says there is septic, high speed fiber optic internet, 2 separate meters for PG & E, Cal Water, new plumbing, new windows, new roof, new a/c, and covered patio around the house/office. Seller financing available. Located in the city limits the general plan is for service industrial. Buyer to verify all data and suitability to buyer's intended use. Take a look at this property today to make your dreams a reality!

6. 2021-11-11
   listed $799,999 Active 826-char remark

   Show marketing remark (826 chars)

   Check out this package deal on 2 lots that total 19.55 acres. Lots of opportunities to utilize this piece of land. Property is ready for endless possibilities; farming, animals, solar panels, trucking, etc. There is a house 884sqft that was built in 1940 that was moved onto the property in 1979 that needs some TLC, but could also be used as an office. Property is in the Kern Delta Water district. Seller says there is septic, high speed fiber optic internet, 2 separate meters for PG & E, Cal Water, new plumbing, new windows, new roof, new a/c, and covered patio around the house/office. Seller financing available. Located in the city limits the general plan is for service industrial. Buyer to verify all data and suitability to buyer's intended use. Take a look at this property today to make your dreams a reality!

7. 2019-08-28
   soldstatus $150,000
8. 2004-11-30
   soldstatus $189,000
9. 1999-10-26
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$373
• After-tax cash flow: $3,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,945
• Household income: $56,446
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3246.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.59%
• Current HPI: 447.1746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $150,000 GEMLS
• 2022-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-04 Sold (MLS) $750,000 GEMLS
• 2021-11-23 Pending — GEMLS
• 2021-11-11 Listed $799,999 GEMLS
• 2019-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+38.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,560 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.