184 County Road 4188 · Forest Heights, TX 77632

$49,999

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 540 Days on market

Built 1970 0.52 ac lot $24/sqft · 84% below area ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is locate off Texas State Highway 87 at Yeary Road. Abandoned home in need of repair. Home sold as is. Home has lots of potential. Please visit the property and conduct all necessary due diligence before submitting offer. Home sold as is. Estate Sale with no sellers disclosure. Interested parties must verify the room conditions/sizes, utilities and any other aspect of this property. Title policy will not be provided. Please review pictures and visit home then make offer. Buyers responsible for verification of all property conditions. Closing at an attorney's office in Jasper Texas. Title policy will not be provided due to an unclear title. Seller financing and cash are the only options for buying this property. Price and seller financing terms are very negotiable. Motivated seller.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 540 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $825 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Deweyville ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #397 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 540 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 540 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.72%
• DSCR: 4.15
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,561
• List price: $49,999
• Delta: -83.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $44,459
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.60×
• Total profit: $106,442
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77632

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $643/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $426

Max offer price $49,999

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,999 Active 540 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,999 Active 539 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,999 Active 538 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,999 Active 537 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,999 Active 535 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,999 Active 532 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,999 Active 531 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,999 Active 530 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,999 Active 529 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,999 Active 525 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,999 Active 524 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,999 Active 523 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,999 Active 522 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,999 Active 521 DOM
15. 2025-10-15
    price $49,999 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Home is locate off Texas State Highway 87 at Yeary Road. Abandoned home in need of repair. Home sold as is. Home has lots of potential. Please visit the property and conduct all necessary due diligence before submitting offer. Home sold as is. Estate Sale with no sellers disclosure. Interested parties must verify the room conditions/sizes, utilities and any other aspect of this property. Title policy will not be provided. Please review pictures and visit home then make offer. Buyers responsible for verification of all property conditions. Closing at an attorney's office in Jasper Texas. Title policy will not be provided due to an unclear title. Seller financing and cash are the only options for buying this property. Price and seller financing terms are very negotiable. Motivated seller.

16. 2024-12-25
    listed $69,900 New 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Home is locate off Texas State Highway 87 at Yeary Road. Abandoned home in need of repair. Home sold as is. Home has lots of potential. Please visit the property and conduct all necessary due diligence before submitting offer. Home sold as is. Estate Sale with no sellers disclosure. Interested parties must verify the room conditions/sizes, utilities and any other aspect of this property. Title policy will not be provided. Please review pictures and visit home then make offer. Buyers responsible for verification of all property conditions. Closing at an attorney's office in Jasper Texas. Title policy will not be provided due to an unclear title. Seller financing and cash are the only options for buying this property. Price and seller financing terms are very negotiable. Motivated seller.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $915 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$272/yr (+$23/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$643
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,322
• After-tax cash flow: $7,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deweyville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817010
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,804
• Composite: 34.6/100
• National rank: #5156
• State rank: #397 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forest Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,976
• Household income: $74,418
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.96%
• Current HPI: 149.354
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $49,999 LERA
• 2024-12-25 Listed $69,900 LERA

Property tax history

-7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $643 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.