203 Little Creek Dr · Rochester, NY 14616

$199,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1957 0.27 ac lot $132/sqft · 27% below area Est $273k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TONS of VALUE right here!! Just Unpack & Enjoy! This spacious home is Move-In Ready! Gorgeous hardwood floors, newer windows & roof. Lots of possibilities here with 2 bedrooms and full bath on the 1st floor, 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs, and a finished lower level walk-out basement with 1/2 bath. 2nd kitchen in walk-out basement with access to three season room and patio. Lots of closet & storage space too! Gorgeous yard and 2+ car garage. Call Ellen for a private showing.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Second kitchen
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• FINISHED WALK-OUT BASEMENT
• SECOND KITCHEN
• LARGE THREE-SEASON PORCH
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• CENTRAL AIR
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Circuit breakers; Public water available; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Asphalt roof; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper and PEX plumbing; Block foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Patio; Partial fencing; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Total of 9 rooms including bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Circuit breaker electrical system
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Sunroom/Florida room; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-23/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (0.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $200k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,560 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,061
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -26.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Sandalwood Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,432 (-5%)	1mo	$253,000	$177	85
95 Ripplewood Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	2mo	$290,000	$207	73
36 Jeanmoor Rd	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,575 (+4%)	0mo	$232,165	$147	59
48 Skycrest Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,288 (-15%)	2mo	$265,000	$206	58
126 Marwood Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,299 (-14%)	2mo	$270,000	$208	58
966 Latta Rd	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	5mo	$260,000	$181	57
80 Ripplewood Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,308 (-14%)	2mo	$269,000	$206	54
18 Glenbrook Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,472 (-3%)	7mo	$270,000	$183	54
791 Rumson Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,414 (-6%)	3mo	$230,000	$163	48
6 Jeanmoor Rd	0.60mi	4/1.5	1,658 (+10%)	6mo	$241,600	$146	47
591 Britton Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,392 (-8%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	43
60 Hilltop Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$281,000	$217	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,332
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,570
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14616

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$497 /mo · $5,959/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $199,560

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $55	+0% $-2	+5% $-59	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-83	+0% $-2	+5% $79	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $49	base $-2	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 Rumson Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	4d	1	0.56mi
108 Glenbrook Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,850	$1.70	24d	1	0.57mi
130 N Park Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1120	$2,000	$1.79	44d	1	0.82mi
175 English Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1194	$1,975	$1.65	44d	1	0.86mi
37 Linda Dr Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	44d	1	0.88mi
304 Bakerdale Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1256	$1,650	$1.31	45d	1	0.95mi
331 Leonard Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,850	$1.60	4d	1	1.06mi
4302 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1600	$3,000	$1.88	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $199,900 Active 1134-char remark
2. 2020-08-28
   soldstatus $140,000
3. 2017-11-06
   soldstatus $123,500 Closed Sale or Rented 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   TONS of VALUE right here!! Just Unpack & Enjoy! This spacious home is Move-In Ready! Gorgeous hardwood floors, newer windows & roof. Lots of possibilities here with 2 bedrooms and full bath on the 1st floor, 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs, and a finished lower level walk-out basement with 1/2 bath. 2nd kitchen in walk-out basement with access to three season room and patio. Lots of closet & storage space too! Gorgeous yard and 2+ car garage. Call Ellen for a private showing.

4. 2017-11-06
   soldstatus $123,500

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   TONS of VALUE right here!! Just Unpack & Enjoy! This spacious home is Move-In Ready! Gorgeous hardwood floors, newer windows & roof. Lots of possibilities here with 2 bedrooms and full bath on the 1st floor, 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs, and a finished lower level walk-out basement with 1/2 bath. 2nd kitchen in walk-out basement with access to three season room and patio. Lots of closet & storage space too! Gorgeous yard and 2+ car garage. Call Ellen for a private showing.

5. 2017-09-08
   status Pending Sale 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   TONS of VALUE right here!! Just Unpack & Enjoy! This spacious home is Move-In Ready! Gorgeous hardwood floors, newer windows & roof. Lots of possibilities here with 2 bedrooms and full bath on the 1st floor, 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs, and a finished lower level walk-out basement with 1/2 bath. 2nd kitchen in walk-out basement with access to three season room and patio. Lots of closet & storage space too! Gorgeous yard and 2+ car garage. Call Ellen for a private showing.

6. 2017-08-25
   price $124,900 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   TONS of VALUE right here!! Just Unpack & Enjoy! This spacious home is Move-In Ready! Gorgeous hardwood floors, newer windows & roof. Lots of possibilities here with 2 bedrooms and full bath on the 1st floor, 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs, and a finished lower level walk-out basement with 1/2 bath. 2nd kitchen in walk-out basement with access to three season room and patio. Lots of closet & storage space too! Gorgeous yard and 2+ car garage. Call Ellen for a private showing.

7. 2017-08-17
   price $130,000 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   TONS of VALUE right here!! Just Unpack & Enjoy! This spacious home is Move-In Ready! Gorgeous hardwood floors, newer windows & roof. Lots of possibilities here with 2 bedrooms and full bath on the 1st floor, 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs, and a finished lower level walk-out basement with 1/2 bath. 2nd kitchen in walk-out basement with access to three season room and patio. Lots of closet & storage space too! Gorgeous yard and 2+ car garage. Call Ellen for a private showing.

8. 2017-08-03
   listed $139,900 Active 506-char remark

   Show marketing remark (506 chars)

   TONS of VALUE right here!! Just Unpack & Enjoy! This spacious home is Move-In Ready! Gorgeous hardwood floors, newer windows & roof. Lots of possibilities here with 2 bedrooms and full bath on the 1st floor, 2 bedrooms and full bath upstairs, and a finished lower level walk-out basement with 1/2 bath. 2nd kitchen in walk-out basement with access to three season room and patio. Lots of closet & storage space too! Gorgeous yard and 2+ car garage. Call Ellen for a private showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,959 · $497/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,959 · $497/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,959
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$773
• After-tax cash flow: $750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,863
• Household income: $66,499
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 789.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.14%
• Current HPI: 246.1703
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-22 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 2020-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records
• 2017-11-06 Sold (MLS) $123,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-09-08 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-08-25 Price Changed $124,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-08-17 Price Changed $130,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-08-03 Listed $139,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,959 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.