15443 Forest Dr · Montgomery, TX 77356

$164,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2019 8,999 sqft lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $165k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to tranquil country living in Montgomery, nestled in Hidden Forest Estates. This charming 2 bed, 2 bath home backs to Sam Houston National Forest offering no back neighbors and serene wooded oasis. Embrace outdoor living with a fenced yard, covered porch, carport, and a cozy outdoor fireplace. Residents can enjoy lake access and a community pool. Don't miss the opportunity to make this peaceful retreat your own.

Key facts

• 8,999 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Hidden Forest CAI homeowners association; Community pool; Association fee $100 annually (covers recreation facilities)

Exterior

• Parking: Electric gate
• Security: Security gate; Prewired security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; North-facing; Has a view
• Construction: Built in 2019; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fully fenced backyard; Storage shed; Backs to greenbelt/park; Views; Wooded lot; Side yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Free‑standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Exterior fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,426 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,900
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15443 Forest Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,088 (0%)	1mo	$164,900	$152	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-20,920
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,353
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,648/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,471

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $215	+0% $168	+5% $121	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $101	+0% $168	+5% $234	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $210	base $168	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20278 Willow Ln Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,850	$1.66	13d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 422-char remark
2. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 422-char remark
3. 2026-05-01
   listed $164,900 Active 422-char remark
4. 2023-08-15
   soldstatus
5. 2001-10-17
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,648 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,018 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$370/yr (+$31/mo · 14.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,648
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$152
• After-tax cash flow: $2,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $164,900 HARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+26.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,648 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.