4882 Arevalo Dr · Concord, MO 63128

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1967 0.26 ac lot $176/sqft · 10% below area Est $332k · 10% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market, no fault of the seller. Great location! This split level home is just waiting for it's new owner to make it their own. Main level offers a spacious living room with a big bay window allowing natural light to flow through. The dining room is open to living room and kitchen for special event gatherings and opens to the covered deck. Kitchen has granite topped center island with seating, as well as a generous amount of countertop space. Three spacious bedrooms with primary bath and hall bath with large vanity and linen closet. Lower level is a walkout to the covered patio and a nice view of the above ground pool that is up and running just in time for warm summer days! The lower level family room has a bar and wood burning fireplace and separate laundry/utility room. There is a large room with 1/2 bath that could be used as an extra bedroom, another small room for storage, toys, you name it! This home has a lot of storage both inside and out. A shed out back (12 x 16) to store pool supplies or lawn equipment. The carport has plenty of room for vehicles or just a spot to hang outside.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.9% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#175 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,927 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,003
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -9.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4988 Sefton Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,742 (+2%)	2mo	$345,000	$198	71
5406 Village Courtway Ln	0.51mi	3/3.0	1,668 (-2%)	1mo	$460,000	$276	68
4764 Brawley Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+3%)	3mo	$285,000	$162	66
5509 Limerick Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,657 (-3%)	2mo	$299,900	$181	65
5489 Limerick Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,797 (+6%)	2mo	$339,000	$189	63
5517 Limerick Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+4%)	3mo	$285,000	$162	63
4918 Caribee Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-6%)	3mo	$290,000	$180	61
4961 Brookton Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$179	60
5374 Tesson Ct	0.45mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,592 (-7%)	4mo	$719,586	$452	58
5021 Peyton Place Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-12%)	2mo	$325,000	$216	56
4839 Hursley Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+6%)	2mo	$325,000	$180	50
4833 Hursley Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,797 (+6%)	6mo	$324,900	$181	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-29,684
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-9,015
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63128

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,829 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,369/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,399

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $510	-5% $425	+0% $340	+5% $255	+10% $170
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $228	+0% $340	+5% $452	+10% $564
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $416	base $340	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5400 Tesson Rdg St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1412	$4,050	$2.87	2d	20	0.47mi
5010 Clayridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,155	$1.26	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $299,900 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-05-08
   price $309,900 1119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

   Back on the market, no fault of the seller. Great location! This split level home is just waiting for it's new owner to make it their own. Main level offers a spacious living room with a big bay window allowing natural light to flow through. The dining room is open to living room and kitchen for special event gatherings and opens to the covered deck. Kitchen has granite topped center island with seating, as well as a generous amount of countertop space. Three spacious bedrooms with primary bath and hall bath with large vanity and linen closet. Lower level is a walkout to the covered patio and a nice view of the above ground pool that is up and running just in time for warm summer days! The lower level family room has a bar and wood burning fireplace and separate laundry/utility room. There is a large room with 1/2 bath that could be used as an extra bedroom, another small room for storage, toys, you name it! This home has a lot of storage both inside and out. A shed out back (12 x 16) to store pool supplies or lawn equipment. The carport has plenty of room for vehicles or just a spot to hang outside.

3. 2026-05-01
   status Active 1119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

   Back on the market, no fault of the seller. Great location! This split level home is just waiting for it's new owner to make it their own. Main level offers a spacious living room with a big bay window allowing natural light to flow through. The dining room is open to living room and kitchen for special event gatherings and opens to the covered deck. Kitchen has granite topped center island with seating, as well as a generous amount of countertop space. Three spacious bedrooms with primary bath and hall bath with large vanity and linen closet. Lower level is a walkout to the covered patio and a nice view of the above ground pool that is up and running just in time for warm summer days! The lower level family room has a bar and wood burning fireplace and separate laundry/utility room. There is a large room with 1/2 bath that could be used as an extra bedroom, another small room for storage, toys, you name it! This home has a lot of storage both inside and out. A shed out back (12 x 16) to store pool supplies or lawn equipment. The carport has plenty of room for vehicles or just a spot to hang outside.

4. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 1119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

   Back on the market, no fault of the seller. Great location! This split level home is just waiting for it's new owner to make it their own. Main level offers a spacious living room with a big bay window allowing natural light to flow through. The dining room is open to living room and kitchen for special event gatherings and opens to the covered deck. Kitchen has granite topped center island with seating, as well as a generous amount of countertop space. Three spacious bedrooms with primary bath and hall bath with large vanity and linen closet. Lower level is a walkout to the covered patio and a nice view of the above ground pool that is up and running just in time for warm summer days! The lower level family room has a bar and wood burning fireplace and separate laundry/utility room. There is a large room with 1/2 bath that could be used as an extra bedroom, another small room for storage, toys, you name it! This home has a lot of storage both inside and out. A shed out back (12 x 16) to store pool supplies or lawn equipment. The carport has plenty of room for vehicles or just a spot to hang outside.

5. 2026-04-24
   listed $315,000 Active 1119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

   Back on the market, no fault of the seller. Great location! This split level home is just waiting for it's new owner to make it their own. Main level offers a spacious living room with a big bay window allowing natural light to flow through. The dining room is open to living room and kitchen for special event gatherings and opens to the covered deck. Kitchen has granite topped center island with seating, as well as a generous amount of countertop space. Three spacious bedrooms with primary bath and hall bath with large vanity and linen closet. Lower level is a walkout to the covered patio and a nice view of the above ground pool that is up and running just in time for warm summer days! The lower level family room has a bar and wood burning fireplace and separate laundry/utility room. There is a large room with 1/2 bath that could be used as an extra bedroom, another small room for storage, toys, you name it! This home has a lot of storage both inside and out. A shed out back (12 x 16) to store pool supplies or lawn equipment. The carport has plenty of room for vehicles or just a spot to hang outside.

6. 2026-04-20
   historical $315,000 1119-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1119 chars)

   Back on the market, no fault of the seller. Great location! This split level home is just waiting for it's new owner to make it their own. Main level offers a spacious living room with a big bay window allowing natural light to flow through. The dining room is open to living room and kitchen for special event gatherings and opens to the covered deck. Kitchen has granite topped center island with seating, as well as a generous amount of countertop space. Three spacious bedrooms with primary bath and hall bath with large vanity and linen closet. Lower level is a walkout to the covered patio and a nice view of the above ground pool that is up and running just in time for warm summer days! The lower level family room has a bar and wood burning fireplace and separate laundry/utility room. There is a large room with 1/2 bath that could be used as an extra bedroom, another small room for storage, toys, you name it! This home has a lot of storage both inside and out. A shed out back (12 x 16) to store pool supplies or lawn equipment. The carport has plenty of room for vehicles or just a spot to hang outside.

7. 1999-10-28
   soldstatus
8. 1967-11-27
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,369 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,909 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$540/yr (+$45/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$2,369
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,716
• − Management: −$2,716
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $4,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concord

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #9260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 30,540
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,540
• Household income: $92,359
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.34%
• Current HPI: 211.4603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $309,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $315,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Coming Soon $315,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1967-11-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,369 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.