5026 Wilmington St · Houston, TX 77033

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,525 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1953 7,104 sqft lot $89/sqft · 19% below area Est $277k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large home great price point. Must see. Need some work, but priced accordingly. Ideal for Renovation Plus or 203k streamline loan. The property has formal Living, Dining and Den. Two bedroom plus optional third bedroom or huge utility room. two full baths. Roof less than two years old.

Key facts

• 7,104 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 1953
• Construction: Brick, vinyl siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Lot area approximately 7,104 sq ft

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 16x13; Bedroom (first level) — 14x13; Bedroom (first level) — 13x11; Bedrooms possible: 3
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Den; Dining room; Living room; Total of 6 rooms; Washer hookup, electric and gas dryer hookups
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-654/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,902/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,216 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,857
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -18.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,099
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,187
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,403/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,971

Max offer price $215,366

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	12d	1	0.23mi
5726 Waterford Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,850	$0.93	11d	1	0.95mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	15d	1	1.06mi
5201 Kenilwood Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2442	$1,725	$0.71	14d	1	1.18mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	17d	1	1.24mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-04-28
    listed $225,000 Active 296-char remark
13. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,403 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$715/yr (+$60/mo · 21.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,403
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,403 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.