8301 Mission Gorge #189 · Santee, CA 92071

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Timeshare · 77 Days on market

Built 1968 42 ac lot $1210/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW!! All you need to do is just bring your furniture and move right in. Brand new flooring throughout. Outstanding remodel to make this beautiful home almost completely handicapped friendly. Come see this one fast. You won't be sorry!

Key facts

• 41.95 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Meadowbrook
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Monthly association fee of $1,210; Senior community; Community features: street lighting, sidewalks, park; Located in a land-lease community (land lease $1,224)

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Meadowbrook park
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (12' x 47') — mobile home remains; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Year built (per assessor)
• Exterior features: In-ground community pool; Has a view; 0-1 Unit/Acre lot characteristic

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central and wall/window cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Front door entry; Primary suite; Primary bathroom; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.6% in Santee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#361 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D, cost of living F.
• Santee (suburban): math 46% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #130 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 197 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-25,127
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-35,925
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92071

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$1,210
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,923

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $154	+0% $99	+5% $44	+10% $-11
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-21	+0% $99	+5% $219	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $139	base $99	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7962 Arly Ct #12 Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	945	$2,800	$2.96	2d	1	0.38mi
8605 Arminda Cir Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	958	$2,650	$2.77	2d	1	0.40mi
8609 Arminda Cir #13 Santee, CA	2.0	2.0	984	$3,000	$3.05	2d	1	0.42mi
7847 Mission Gorge Rd Santee, CA	1.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,845	$3.27	2d	4	0.47mi
177 Via Montisi Santee, CA	2.0	2.5	1239	$3,450	$2.78	2d	1	0.52mi
69 Via Sovana Santee, CA	3.0	3.0	1342	$3,600	$2.68	2d	1	0.52mi
8434 Kreiner Way Santee, CA	3.0	2.0	1305	$4,213	$3.23	22d	1	0.76mi
8617 Bushy Hill Dr Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1299	$2,700	$2.08	2d	1	1.01mi
8745 Redwood Dr Santee, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1264	$2,850	$2.25	2d	1	1.03mi
8009 Calle Fanita Santee, CA	2.0	1.5	1024	$2,995	$2.92	2d	1	1.12mi
9409 Lake Murray Blvd San Diego, CA	2.0	2.5	1290	$3,300	$2.56	18d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,210 · $14,520/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-05-23
   price $159,000
7. 2026-04-20
   price $180,000
8. 2026-03-19
   listed $185,000 Active
9. 2022-04-07
   soldstatus $163,000 Closed Sale 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   WOW!! All you need to do is just bring your furniture and move right in. Brand new flooring throughout. Outstanding remodel to make this beautiful home almost completely handicapped friendly. Come see this one fast. You won't be sorry!

10. 2022-03-15
    status Pending Sale 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    WOW!! All you need to do is just bring your furniture and move right in. Brand new flooring throughout. Outstanding remodel to make this beautiful home almost completely handicapped friendly. Come see this one fast. You won't be sorry!

11. 2022-02-25
    listed $169,900 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    WOW!! All you need to do is just bring your furniture and move right in. Brand new flooring throughout. Outstanding remodel to make this beautiful home almost completely handicapped friendly. Come see this one fast. You won't be sorry!

12. 2016-06-29
    historical
13. 2016-06-29
    historical
14. 2016-06-09
    status Back On Market
15. 2016-04-25
    status Pending
16. 2016-03-03
    price $59,500
17. 2016-01-31
    listed $63,500 Active
18. 2016-01-21
    listed $59,500
19. 2012-03-06
    soldstatus $14,000
20. 2011-10-10
    listed $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥96°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,926
• − Management: −$2,926
• − HOA: −$14,520
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$122
• After-tax cash flow: $1,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santee
• NCES district ID: 0635880
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,452
• Composite: 45.0/100
• National rank: #2698
• State rank: #130 of 517 in CA

Livability — Santee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #12272

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santee, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 59,590
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 59,590
• Household income: $113,618
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1719.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -607.00%
• Current HPI: 393.1781
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1035.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2022-04-07 Sold (MLS) $163,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-02-25 Listed $169,900 CRMLS
• 2016-06-29 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2016-06-29 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2016-06-09 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2016-04-25 Pending — SDMLS
• 2016-03-03 Price Changed $59,500 SDMLS
• 2016-01-31 Listed $63,500 SDMLS
• 2016-01-21 Listed $59,500 CRMLS
• 2012-03-06 Sold (MLS) $14,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-10 Listed $14,000 CRMLS