3119 Belair Rd · Baltimore, MD 21213

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1924 1,350 sqft lot Est $128k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property is part of a larger portfolio. Please contact for more details regarding associated listings. Closings will need to be coordinated with the other properties in the portfolio but may sell to individual buyers. Seller will only accept offers from serious buyers who can align with that timeline.

Key facts

• Built 1924
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Built-up roof; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan cooling; Natural gas for heating and hot water; Bottled gas listed for cooling fuel
• Interior features: Connecting stairway to basement; Basement present (full)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $172 of equity ($967 loan paydown + $-795 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.30%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $128,250
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2902 Clifton Park Ter	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-0%)	1mo	$66,000	$49	90
3533 Elmley Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-0%)	1mo	$70,000	$52	82
2821 Erdman Ave	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-7%)	0mo	$75,000	$60	71
3733 Ravenwood Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$100	67
3564 Elmora Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,478 (+10%)	1mo	$133,500	$90	62
3406 Ramona Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+4%)	0mo	$85,000	$60	58
3571 Dudley Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	1mo	$175,000	$125	58
3238 Ravenwood Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,158 (-14%)	0mo	$70,000	$60	57
3532 Cliftmont Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$168,000	$140	51
3555 Elmora Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (-13%)	1mo	$254,000	$216	50
3838 Lyndale Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (-12%)	2mo	$113,500	$95	42
4117 Eastmont Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-13%)	1mo	$224,900	$191	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.57% appreciation · 5.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $28,808
• Equity at exit: $36,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $99,046
• Equity at exit: $41,084

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21213

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,159

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3335 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	24d	1	0.26mi
3317 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.27mi
3315 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	896	$1,650	$1.84	18d	1	0.27mi
3213 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1188	$1,395	$1.17	44d	1	0.27mi
2828 Lake Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,850	$1.59	4d	1	0.27mi
3222 Lyndale Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	12d	1	0.27mi
3218 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1020	$1,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.28mi
3326 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	24d	1	0.28mi
3221 Lyndale Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,700	$1.67	24d	1	0.29mi
3436 Cardenas Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1146	$1,395	$1.22	44d	1	0.29mi
3339 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	896	$1,600	$1.79	44d	1	0.30mi
3551 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1872	$2,095	$1.12	24d	1	0.31mi
3322 Ravenwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	932	$1,800	$1.93	24d	1	0.32mi
3512 Elmora Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1472	$1,900	$1.29	20d	1	0.32mi
3343 Ravenwood Ave Unit 3343 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	948	$1,855	$1.96	18d	1	0.34mi
2113 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,795	$1.34	44d	1	0.36mi
3610 Elmley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	20d	1	0.38mi
3515 Parklawn Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	3d	1	0.38mi
2837 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1164	$1,675	$1.44	44d	1	0.39mi
2817 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	24d	1	0.40mi
2848 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	44d	1	0.41mi
3519 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,100	$1.37	11d	1	0.46mi
3525 Kentucky Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1536	$1,950	$1.27	44d	1	0.46mi
2735 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	11d	1	0.48mi
3028 Kenyon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,395	$1.30	44d	1	0.49mi
3902 Erdman Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	24d	1	0.51mi
3603 Ravenwood Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1566	$1,600	$1.02	44d	1	0.52mi
3914 Erdman Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,319	$1.10	18d	1	0.53mi
3572 Juneway Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1800	$1,200	$0.67	44d	1	0.57mi
3305 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,950	$1.38	44d	1	0.57mi
4104 Erdman Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1566	$1,075	$0.69	4d	1	0.58mi
3300 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,200	$1.28	44d	1	0.59mi
3544 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,635	$1.36	44d	1	0.61mi
3566 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	896	$1,800	$2.01	24d	1	0.72mi
3551 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,358	$1.59	24d	1	0.74mi
3573 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,300	$1.54	18d	1	0.75mi
2522 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1760	$1,400	$0.80	44d	1	0.83mi
2311 E Lafayette Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.83mi
4320 Sheldon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	24d	1	0.84mi
1832 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,495	$1.40	24d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 307-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $822 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,173 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$351/yr (+$29/mo · 42.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$1,366
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $4,088
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$981
• After-tax cash flow: $5,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 28,058
• Household income: $51,344
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1868.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Current HPI: 427.4453
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.25%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+584.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $4,552,396 Public Records
• 2015-11-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-11-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-06-24 Listed — MRIS
• 2015-06-24 Listed $85,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-07-08 Sold (MLS) $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-07-08 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MRIS
• 2011-06-24 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-06-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-06 Listed $45,000 MRIS
• 2011-04-06 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-12-28 Sold (MLS) $19,000 MRIS
• 2000-12-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-10-16 Listed $21,900 MRIS
• 2000-10-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-11-03 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.