Opal Plan · Gulfport, MS 39503

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enhance everyday living with the Opal's open-concept layout. Unlock your inner chef in the spacious kitchen, then unwind outdoors in the covered rear patio. Retreat to the luxurious primary suite, featuring dual vanities and a sizeable walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Covered rear patio
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,168.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-565 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 770 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,462 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.15%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,168
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -15.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10541 Landon Meadows Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	8mo	$256,990	$186	94
10616 Landon Meadows Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	2mo	$268,990	$195	92
10516 Glade Cv	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	12mo	$254,990	$185	86
10508 Glade Cv	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	12mo	$254,990	$185	85
10538 Roundhill Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+7%)	4mo	$225,000	$152	55
10464 W Landon Green Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+13%)	18mo	$265,000	$170	53
10656 Wren Grv	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+10%)	14mo	$278,000	$184	46
16934 W Landon Green Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+12%)	17mo	$344,900	$223	46
10662 Wren Grove Grv #4072	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+8%)	21mo	$250,990	$169	44
10622 Wren Gv Grv	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+13%)	18mo	$288,900	$186	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-76,229
• Equity at exit: $44,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-77,522
• Equity at exit: $25,694

Cash invested: $83,207 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,458/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-565

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,600

Max offer price $215,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-359	-5% $-462	+0% $-565	+5% $-667	+10% $-770
Rent	-10% $-714	-5% $-639	+0% $-565	+5% $-490	+10% $-416
Rate	-1.0pp $-415	-0.5pp $-489	base $-565	+0.5pp $-642	+1.0pp $-720

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,292
• Closing costs: $8,915
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10261 English Manor Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	0.84mi
10388 Sweet Bay Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,800	$1.23	15d	1	0.90mi
18052 Green Leaves Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,800	$1.21	23d	1	1.00mi
11415 Oak Alley Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,975	$1.32	15d	1	1.16mi
16222 Saddle Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,600	$0.95	23d	1	1.21mi
11601 Oaklane Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,525	$0.97	15d	1	1.22mi
10466 Steeplechase Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,800	$1.07	15d	1	1.27mi
11604 Caroline Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,850	$1.11	46d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,990 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,990 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,990 Active 8 DOM
4. 2025-11-01
   listed $249,990 Active 251-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,615
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,646
• − Property taxes: −$4,458
• − Insurance: −$1,486
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$8,645
• Taxable loss: −$12,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,937
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0