228 N 15th Dr · Sturgeon Bay, WI 54235

$309,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,911 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1974 0.26 ac lot $162/sqft · 13% below area Est $355k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just move in and start living! Nicely updated throughout, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch with eat-in kitchen has sliding glass doors that give access to the large private tree-lined backyard, a great area for a cookout! The lower level is nicely finished with an area to watch TV or play games. Close to high school and YMCA. Easy access to highway for commuting.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water and sewer (standard for residential areas)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Zoned R-1
• Exterior features: Patio

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in Sturgeon Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#113 in WI, #2,936 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sturgeon Bay School District (town): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #178 of 342 in WI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 306 units permitted in Door County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Door County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $234,029 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,748
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -12.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
355 N 15th Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,946 (+2%)	1mo	$415,000	$213	88
142 N 15th Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,716 (-10%)	11mo	$225,000	$131	69
1510 Iowa Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	7mo	$350,000	$208	66
322 N 18th Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-9%)	5mo	$440,000	$253	66
241 N 17th Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,088 (+9%)	12mo	$447,000	$214	62
352 N 19th Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-7%)	8mo	$540,000	$303	62
232 S 12th Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,910 (-0%)	14mo	$275,000	$144	59
331 N 17th Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,046 (+7%)	11mo	$526,400	$257	59
337 N 18th Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,122 (+11%)	11mo	$520,000	$245	58
219 N 15th Ct	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,174 (+14%)	10mo	$380,000	$175	54
930 Rhode Island St	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,794 (-6%)	2mo	$340,000	$190	51
808 Pennsylvania Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,733 (-9%)	9mo	$488,000	$282	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-62,135
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-69,535
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 54235

• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,374/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $276,928

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1400 Georgia St Unit 118 Sturgeon Bay, WI	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,699	$1.36	43d	1	0.36mi
610 Jefferson St Unit 1 Sturgeon Bay, WI	4.0	2.0	2150	$3,500	$1.63	43d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $309,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $309,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $309,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $309,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    listed $309,900 Active 263-char remark
11. 2017-04-10
    soldstatus $137,500
12. 2017-04-07
    soldstatus $137,500 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Just move in and start living! Nicely updated throughout, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch with eat-in kitchen has sliding glass doors that give access to the large private tree-lined backyard, a great area for a cookout! The lower level is nicely finished with an area to watch TV or play games. Close to high school and YMCA. Easy access to highway for commuting.

13. 2017-01-31
    listed $139,900 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Just move in and start living! Nicely updated throughout, this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath ranch with eat-in kitchen has sliding glass doors that give access to the large private tree-lined backyard, a great area for a cookout! The lower level is nicely finished with an area to watch TV or play games. Close to high school and YMCA. Easy access to highway for commuting.

14. 2011-04-19
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,374 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,554 · $379/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,179/yr (+$98/mo · 34.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$3,374
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$7,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sturgeon Bay School District
• NCES district ID: 5514610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,705
• Composite: 33.35/100
• National rank: #5489
• State rank: #178 of 342 in WI

Livability — Sturgeon Bay

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #2936

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sturgeon Bay, WI
• City population: 17,845
• Population (ZIP): 17,845

Population outlook (Door County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,220 people
• By 2030: 26,785 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 25,167 · -7.5%
• By 2050: 23,052 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 18,981 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -45.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% English 7% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Door

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.6% · R 48.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: 2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.2 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+3.2 2012: D+7.0 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.61%
• Current HPI: 197.0112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+154.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $318,000 DCBRMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $309,900 DCBRMLS
• 2017-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 2017-04-07 Sold (MLS) $137,500 DCBRMLS
• 2017-01-31 Listed $139,900 DCBRMLS
• 2011-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,374 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.