1953 Nelson Ave · Ormond Beach, FL 32174

$219,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1972 9,100 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Four bedroom, 1.5 bath concrete block home in Ormond Beach featuring recent interior paint, new carpet in the bedrooms, tile flooring in the living room and eat-in kitchen, an inside utility room, and extra storage. Large partially fenced yard. This home offers comfortable living space and is ready for its next owner. Must see to appreciate! Room sizes are approximate and should not be relied upon.

Key facts

• 9,100 sq ft lot
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($631/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.9% in Ormond Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#55 in FL, #965 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 29% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,962 of 2,144 statewide, top 92%, 636 students, 83% FRL); David C. Hinson Sr. Middle School (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 950 students, 52% FRL); Mainland High School (math 30% / reading 37%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,855 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 51% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $220k implies a 609% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,022 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-34,890
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,473
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32174

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,930 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,730/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,864

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $115	+0% $53	+5% $-10	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-24	+0% $53	+5% $129	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $109	base $53	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 Evergreen St Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	868	$1,750	$2.02	24d	1	0.71mi
1435 Atlanta Dr Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	24d	1	0.74mi
1235 Alcazar St Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,100	$1.40	24d	1	0.82mi
1615 Derbyshire Rd Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,950	$1.95	15d	1	0.88mi
1512 Richmond Ave Unit 1546284P Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1173	$3,226	$2.75	15d	1	0.98mi
108 San Mardeen Ct Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,650	$1.77	24d	1	1.02mi
1575 Megan Bay Cir Daytona Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,800	$1.46	24d	1	1.13mi
410 Sauls St Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	990	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	1.17mi
402 Fleming Ave Ormond Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,560	$1.71	21d	1	1.19mi
1559 Hammock Dr Unit B Holly Hill, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,375	$1.25	15d	1	1.19mi
1563 Hancock Ln Daytona Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,475	$1.62	11d	1	1.21mi
946 15th St Daytona Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,500	$1.49	24d	1	1.29mi
35 Magnolia Ave Unit 35 Ormond Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.42mi
1088 W Granada Blvd Ormond Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,570	$1.65	11d	8	1.45mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 404-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   listed $219,900 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,730 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,730 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,730
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $1,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ormond Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #965

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 69,624
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 54,783
• Household income: $71,011
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1158.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -327.97%
• Current HPI: 271.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1156.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listing Removed — Daytona MLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $219,900 Daytona MLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2026-04-11 Listed for Rent $2,100 BUILDIUM
• 2025-10-29 Rental Removed $1,950 BUILDIUM
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $1,950 BUILDIUM
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $2,100 BUILDIUM
• 2025-07-11 Listed for Rent $2,200 BUILDIUM
• 2024-09-23 Rental Removed $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-08 Listed for Rent $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 1996-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records
• 1972-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,730 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.