390 Stonecrop Rd · Northville, NY 11931

$879,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,337 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2014 9,583 sqft lot $376/sqft · 16% below area Est $1049k · 16% under $723/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 390 Stonecrop Rd. located in The Highlands Club at Aquebogue. This is the Channing Model built in 2014. Original owners. Meticulously maintained. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The total living space is 2337 Sq. Ft. and all on one level. The primary En-suite has a 10' step ceiling, double sink vanity and 2 walk-in closets. The open concept floor plan offers a great room with a gas fireplace and a spacious dining/eating area both with 13' ceilings! Hardwood floors throughout. Ample closets and storage. Natural light abounds throughout the living space. An open ended kitchen allows for easy flow and a full view of the living space for ease of entertaining. A bright and airy sunroom leads out to the backyard surrounded with mature plantings and a stone patio. The unfinished basement is 1889 Sq. Ft. and has the required egress for potential rec/living space with proper permits. Attached 2-car garage for direct access to the house and the laundry room. The community center offers a clubhouse with an exercise room, game room and a kitchenette. There is also tennis/pickleball court and an inground heated pool. Conveniently located to all the North fork has to offer...fine restaurants, several golf courses and clubs, shopping, wineries and breweries, farm stands, LI Sound beach and Peconic Bay beach. 2% CPF Tax applies.

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Natural light
• Ample closets

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS DINING AREA
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• AMPLE CLOSETS
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $879k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($94k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $879k).
• Recommended offer: $800k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $94k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $88k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $246k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$151k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($800k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $799,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.12%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,048,562
• List price: $879,000
• Delta: -16.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
390 Stonecrop Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,337 (0%)	0mo	$865,000	$370	100
345 Stonecrop Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	2,458 (+5%)	22mo	$760,000	$309	69
1200 Cross River Dr	0.52mi	2/4.0 (-1)	2,600 (+11%)	14mo	$3,500,000	$1,346	33
18 Daly Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,032 (-13%)	19mo	$901,000	$443	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $977,469
• Equity at exit: $791,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.11×
• Total profit: $2,488,290
• Equity at exit: $1,707,704

Cash invested: $246,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,610
• Tax from tax record: −$1,102 /mo · $13,221/yr
• Insurance: −$366
• HOA: −$723
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,886
• Net cashflow: $7,819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,608

Max offer price $879,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $219,750
• Closing costs: $26,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Promenade Dr Aquebogue, NY	4.0	2.0	1825	$29,000	$15.89	43d	1	1.08mi
807 Union Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.5	2552	$9,000	$3.53	43d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $723 · $8,676/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

   Welcome to 390 Stonecrop Rd. located in The Highlands Club at Aquebogue. This is the Channing Model built in 2014. Original owners. Meticulously maintained. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The total living space is 2337 Sq. Ft. and all on one level. The primary En-suite has a 10' step ceiling, double sink vanity and 2 walk-in closets. The open concept floor plan offers a great room with a gas fireplace and a spacious dining/eating area both with 13' ceilings! Hardwood floors throughout. Ample closets and storage. Natural light abounds throughout the living space. An open ended kitchen allows for easy flow and a full view of the living space for ease of entertaining. A bright and airy sunroom leads out to the backyard surrounded with mature plantings and a stone patio. The unfinished basement is 1889 Sq. Ft. and has the required egress for potential rec/living space with proper permits. Attached 2-car garage for direct access to the house and the laundry room. The community center offers a clubhouse with an exercise room, game room and a kitchenette. There is also tennis/pickleball court and an inground heated pool. Conveniently located to all the North fork has to offer...fine restaurants, several golf courses and clubs, shopping, wineries and breweries, farm stands, LI Sound beach and Peconic Bay beach. 2% CPF Tax applies.

2. 2026-01-02
   listed $879,000 Active 1351-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1351 chars)

   Welcome to 390 Stonecrop Rd. located in The Highlands Club at Aquebogue. This is the Channing Model built in 2014. Original owners. Meticulously maintained. 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The total living space is 2337 Sq. Ft. and all on one level. The primary En-suite has a 10' step ceiling, double sink vanity and 2 walk-in closets. The open concept floor plan offers a great room with a gas fireplace and a spacious dining/eating area both with 13' ceilings! Hardwood floors throughout. Ample closets and storage. Natural light abounds throughout the living space. An open ended kitchen allows for easy flow and a full view of the living space for ease of entertaining. A bright and airy sunroom leads out to the backyard surrounded with mature plantings and a stone patio. The unfinished basement is 1889 Sq. Ft. and has the required egress for potential rec/living space with proper permits. Attached 2-car garage for direct access to the house and the laundry room. The community center offers a clubhouse with an exercise room, game room and a kitchenette. There is also tennis/pickleball court and an inground heated pool. Conveniently located to all the North fork has to offer...fine restaurants, several golf courses and clubs, shopping, wineries and breweries, farm stands, LI Sound beach and Peconic Bay beach. 2% CPF Tax applies.

3. 2014-05-27
   historical
4. 2014-04-25
   soldstatus $4,040,000
5. 2013-05-27
   listed $589,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,221 · $1,102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,038 · $1,170/mo
• Expected delta: +$817/yr (+$68/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $222,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,238
• − Property taxes: −$13,221
• − Insurance: −$4,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,766
• − Management: −$17,766
• − HOA: −$8,676
• − Depreciation: −$25,571
• Taxable income: $85,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20,506
• After-tax cash flow: $73,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+49.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Listed $879,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $4,040,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-27 Listed $589,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,221 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.