138 Railroad St · Mount Carmel, PA 17840

$49,995

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 1920

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors! This property offers incredible potential and is ready for transformation, with endless possibilities. This is a blank canvas ready for your imagination and creativity. Seller is open to reviewing all offers— Bring your vision and submit your best offer today!

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax assessed value listed (2026); Annual taxes reported (2026)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Finished above-grade area estimated at 1,316
• Construction: Year built estimated
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 19 x 77; Not in a federal flood zone; Other above- and below-grade structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Basement present (other type)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $582 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 12.2% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#641 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute F, employment F.
• Mount Carmel Area SD (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #455 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2k; list at $50k implies a 2400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.89%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $43,094
• Equity at exit: $22,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.25×
• Total profit: $101,470
• Equity at exit: $34,644

Cash invested: $13,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17840

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $457/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $582

Break-even live

Break-even rent $406

Max offer price $49,995

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $610	-5% $596	+0% $582	+5% $568	+10% $554
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $537	+0% $582	+5% $627	+10% $672
Rate	-1.0pp $607	-0.5pp $595	base $582	+0.5pp $569	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,499
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,995 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,995 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,995 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 281-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $49,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: +$166/yr (+$14/mo · 36.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,800
• − Property taxes: −$457
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$1,454
• Taxable income: $6,561
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $5,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Carmel Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4215990
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,195
• Composite: 23.48/100
• National rank: #7876
• State rank: #455 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #641
• US rank: #6230

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Locust Gap, PA
• Population (ZIP): 197

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 37% Iranian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1149.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $49,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $49,995 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-21 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-06 Listed $25,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-28 Sold (MLS) $2,000 CSVBR
• 2018-05-19 Listed $4,000 CSVBR

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $457 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.