2577 County Road 2226 · Caddo Mills, TX 75135

$269,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,413 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1983 1.30 ac lot $111/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1.3 ACS. FM 36 - COUNTRY LIVING WITH TREE LINED CIRCLE DRIVEWAY ENTRY. WAITING FOR A FAMILY. 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH, 2 DINING AREAS, AND MEDIA ROOM FOR ENTERTAINMENT, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, LOT OF CERAMIC FLOORING, CARPET, HVAC, 1 WINDOW UNIT, SOLAR PANELS, METAL BLDG WITH ELECTRIC, STORAGE BLDG FOR A BOAT OR WORKSHOP. HOME NEEDS TLC. SCATTERED CONCRETE SIDEWALKS. YOU WILL LIKE THE BACKYARD. COME AND TAKE A LOOK!

Key facts

• Storage building
• Solar panels
• Media room

Tags

• TREE LINED CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• MEDIA ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SOLAR PANELS
• METAL BUILDING WITH ELECTRIC
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Caddo Mills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kathryn Griffis El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 568 students, 34% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 317 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,466 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $649,185
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -58.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-62,387
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-78,135
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75135

• Home prices YoY: -13.5%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$514 /mo · $6,172/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,579

Max offer price $216,466

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-221	+0% $-297	+5% $-374	+10% $-450
Rent	-10% $-471	-5% $-384	+0% $-297	+5% $-210	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-229	base $-297	+0.5pp $-367	+1.0pp $-438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $269,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $282,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $282,500 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $282,500 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $282,500 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $282,500 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,500 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,500 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,500 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,500 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,500 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $282,500 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    1.3 ACS. FM 36 - COUNTRY LIVING WITH TREE LINED CIRCLE DRIVEWAY ENTRY. WAITING FOR A FAMILY. 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH, 2 DINING AREAS, AND MEDIA ROOM FOR ENTERTAINMENT, WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, LOT OF CERAMIC FLOORING, CARPET, HVAC, 1 WINDOW UNIT, SOLAR PANELS, METAL BLDG WITH ELECTRIC, STORAGE BLDG FOR A BOAT OR WORKSHOP. HOME NEEDS TLC. SCATTERED CONCRETE SIDEWALKS. YOU WILL LIKE THE BACKYARD. COME AND TAKE A LOOK!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,172 · $514/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,172 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$6,172
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$8,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,265
• Population (ZIP): 10,265

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.07%
• Current HPI: 275.2189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $282,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,172 · +50.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.