2970 Ravines Rd #1329 · Middleburg, FL 32068

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 420 sqft · Condo public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1983 $268/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Enjoy serenity in this 1BR/1BA condo at an affordable price in the community of The Ravines! This beautiful gated neighborhood features a pond, walking trails, and pet stations. It is a second story unit offering a balcony with tranquil views of nature. Priced to sell, Cash AS-IS. This is one of the cheapest offerings in the Ravines in the last 3 years! Don't miss your chance at this opportunity in a highly desirable neighborhood! No blind or assignable offers will be considered.

Key facts

• Brand-new kitchen
• $268 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• UPGRADED END-UNIT CONDO
• MANNED-GATED COMMUNITY
• FULLY REMODELED INTERIOR
• WIDE PLANK VINYL FLOORING
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee; Association amenities: grounds and structure maintenance, security

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Security: 24-hour security; Gated community with guard
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer available
• Home design: Condominium; Two levels; Entry level: 2
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; 2-story building
• Exterior features: Balcony; Covered patio; Rear porch; Corner lot; Private road frontage (asphalt)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (entry on level 2)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Open floorplan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-591/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (7.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 49% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $125k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,301 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-22,815
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-21,530
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$268
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $116,301

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-14	+0% $-49	+5% $-85	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-99	+0% $-49	+5% $1	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-17	base $-49	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $268 · $3,216/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $125,000
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $135,000 Active
17. 2024-12-23
    soldstatus $70,000
18. 2024-12-13
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Enjoy serenity in this 1BR/1BA condo at an affordable price in the community of The Ravines! This beautiful gated neighborhood features a pond, walking trails, and pet stations. It is a second story unit offering a balcony with tranquil views of nature. Priced to sell, Cash AS-IS. This is one of the cheapest offerings in the Ravines in the last 3 years! Don't miss your chance at this opportunity in a highly desirable neighborhood! No blind or assignable offers will be considered.

19. 2024-12-11
    status Pending 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Enjoy serenity in this 1BR/1BA condo at an affordable price in the community of The Ravines! This beautiful gated neighborhood features a pond, walking trails, and pet stations. It is a second story unit offering a balcony with tranquil views of nature. Priced to sell, Cash AS-IS. This is one of the cheapest offerings in the Ravines in the last 3 years! Don't miss your chance at this opportunity in a highly desirable neighborhood! No blind or assignable offers will be considered.

20. 2024-12-11
    soldstatus $45,000

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Enjoy serenity in this 1BR/1BA condo at an affordable price in the community of The Ravines! This beautiful gated neighborhood features a pond, walking trails, and pet stations. It is a second story unit offering a balcony with tranquil views of nature. Priced to sell, Cash AS-IS. This is one of the cheapest offerings in the Ravines in the last 3 years! Don't miss your chance at this opportunity in a highly desirable neighborhood! No blind or assignable offers will be considered.

21. 2024-12-06
    listed $89,900 Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Enjoy serenity in this 1BR/1BA condo at an affordable price in the community of The Ravines! This beautiful gated neighborhood features a pond, walking trails, and pet stations. It is a second story unit offering a balcony with tranquil views of nature. Priced to sell, Cash AS-IS. This is one of the cheapest offerings in the Ravines in the last 3 years! Don't miss your chance at this opportunity in a highly desirable neighborhood! No blind or assignable offers will be considered.

22. 2007-12-31
    historical 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Need a Weekend Getaway or a small Studio apartment, then this is the place for you. New ceramic tile is the highlight of this unit w/Neutral Decor. Sleeps 4, full kitchen. Don't miss an opportunity to live in a gated community for this great price.

23. 2007-06-22
    listed $62,000 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Need a Weekend Getaway or a small Studio apartment, then this is the place for you. New ceramic tile is the highlight of this unit w/Neutral Decor. Sleeps 4, full kitchen. Don't miss an opportunity to live in a gated community for this great price.

24. 2003-07-10
    soldstatus $35,000
25. 1997-10-24
    soldstatus $25,000
26. 1983-11-01
    soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 22.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − HOA: −$3,216
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$625
• After-tax cash flow: $35/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+157.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $125,000 realMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $135,000 realMLS
• 2024-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-13 Sold (MLS) $70,000 realMLS
• 2024-12-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-06 Listed $89,900 realMLS
• 2007-12-31 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-06-22 Listed $62,000 realMLS
• 2003-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1997-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · +28.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.