4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #53 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$80,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1973 $60/sqft · 30% below area Est $114k · 30% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lakeside Living!! Golden opportunity to purchase a two bedroom 1.75 bath home located in a 55+ Timberlane Mobile Estates on Black Lake. Roomy 1344sqft offers two good sized bedrooms that each connect to a bathroom. The main primary bedroom has a walk in shower. Plenty of storage and room for 2 cars underneath a covered carport. Small yard perfect for gardening or pets. Newer furnace and heat pump for those hot summer days. Short distance to the community lake front park. Come enjoy all that Black Lake has to offer. Community has their own dock; perfect for fishing, boating, kayaking, canoeing, or swimming. Centrally located less than 10 mins to Olympia’s westside or head the other dir

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Boat ramp
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• COMMUNITY LAKE FRONT PARK
• BOAT RAMP
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.47%
• DSCR: 3.74
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,485
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -30.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #59	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	18mo	$85,000	$68	70
4707 Black Lake Belmore Rd SW #51	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	15mo	$130,000	$113	63
4045 49th Ave SW #11	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	22mo	$125,000	$109	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $58,574
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $138,872
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $1,147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $633

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,193	-5% $1,170	+0% $1,147	+5% $1,125	+10% $1,102
Rent	-10% $983	-5% $1,065	+0% $1,147	+5% $1,230	+10% $1,312
Rate	-1.0pp $1,188	-0.5pp $1,168	base $1,147	+0.5pp $1,127	+1.0pp $1,106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $80,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $90,000
18. 2026-02-27
    price $99,000
19. 2026-01-21
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $13,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,179
• After-tax cash flow: $10,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $105,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $568 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.