30 Soho Cir · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 89 Days on market

Built 1983 Good condition $800/mo HOA · 47% of rent ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional layout with modern improvements throughout, all set in Loch Sheldrake within the Catskills region. Inside, sheetrock walls and higher ceilings create a bright, open feel, complemented by fresh paint in light-reflective tones and cohesive laminate flooring throughout. The updated kitchen features newer appliances, while both the main bathroom and en-suite have been renovated with clean, modern finishes. Ample closet space and a forced air heating system (fuel oil) add to the home’s overall comfort and practicality. Exterior highlights include a cleared and refreshed lot, an inviting front deck, and partial new siding along one side of the home. Conveniently located with access to both Ulster and Sullivan Counties, the property offers a balance of accessibility and a quieter setting. Positioned near the Grahamsville Fairgrounds, the surrounding area is known for its natural beauty, including nearby reservoirs, waterfalls, hiking trails, and protected lands, along with year-round outdoor recreation.

Key facts

• Higher ceilings
• Laminate flooring
• Thoughtful updates

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• THOUGHTFUL UPDATES
• SHEETROCK WALLS
• HIGHER CEILINGS
• FRESHLY PAINTED
• LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $78k (22.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.

Recommended offer $77,653 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.60%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
526 Hasbrouck Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (0%)	21mo	$150,000	$107	43
33 Humen Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+5%)	21mo	$240,000	$163	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $45,133
• Equity at exit: $89,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $141,639
• Equity at exit: $194,084

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12759

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $77,653

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-119	+0% $-154	+5% $-188	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-221	+0% $-154	+5% $-87	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-103	-0.5pp $-128	base $-154	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-03-22
    listed $99,900 Active 1111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

    Move-in ready and thoughtfully updated, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional layout with modern improvements throughout, all set in Loch Sheldrake within the Catskills region. Inside, sheetrock walls and higher ceilings create a bright, open feel, complemented by fresh paint in light-reflective tones and cohesive laminate flooring throughout. The updated kitchen features newer appliances, while both the main bathroom and en-suite have been renovated with clean, modern finishes. Ample closet space and a forced air heating system (fuel oil) add to the home’s overall comfort and practicality. Exterior highlights include a cleared and refreshed lot, an inviting front deck, and partial new siding along one side of the home. Conveniently located with access to both Ulster and Sullivan Counties, the property offers a balance of accessibility and a quieter setting. Positioned near the Grahamsville Fairgrounds, the surrounding area is known for its natural beauty, including nearby reservoirs, waterfalls, hiking trails, and protected lands, along with year-round outdoor recreation.

17. 2026-03-05
    historical
18. 2025-12-09
    price $105,000
19. 2025-05-12
    price $119,000
20. 2025-04-16
    listed $155,000 Active
21. 2025-04-16
    historical
22. 2025-04-15
    price $155,000
23. 2025-03-15
    price $119,995
24. 2025-03-04
    listed $140,000 Active
25. 2025-03-04
    historical
26. 2025-03-02
    historical
27. 2024-12-31
    price $120,000
28. 2024-12-03
    price $130,000
29. 2024-09-23
    price $150,000
30. 2024-08-16
    price $129,900
31. 2024-07-15
    price $139,900
32. 2024-05-31
    price $149,900
33. 2024-05-15
    listed $179,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$3,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$731
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready, thoughtfully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional layout with modern improvements throughout, all set in Loch Sheldrake within the Catskills region.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.94%
• Current HPI: 495.297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-44.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Listed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $105,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $119,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-16 Listed $155,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $155,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $119,995 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-04 Listed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-04 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $130,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $129,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-15 Price Changed $139,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Listed $179,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid