11852 Osprey Point Cir · Wellington, FL 33449

$1,175,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2001 10,288 sqft lot $400/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a beautifully updated Wellington residence that blends comfort, style, and effortless Florida living. From the moment you arrive, the home makes a lasting impression with its inviting entry, elegant finishes, and light-filled interior spaces designed for both everyday living and entertaining. Inside, you'll find a warm and polished layout featuring a dedicated office with rich built-ins, an elegant dining area, and comfortable living spaces that flow naturally toward the outdoors. The fully updated kitchen and main living areas feel fresh, bright, and sophisticated, with crisp cabinetry, modern lighting, and a clean, contemporary feel throughout. The living room offers a high end

Key facts

• Full home generator
• Covered patio
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• HIGH END HOME THEATER
• FULL HOME GENERATOR
• PRIVATE BACKYARD RETREAT
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (pet restrictions possible)
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, indoor pool, outdoor pool, spa/hot tub, basketball court, baseball/softball field, playground, picnic area, community room, sidewalks, street lights, gated access, parking, and recreation facilities; HOA fee approximately $400 monthly (includes cable TV, trash, common areas)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 spaces; Driveway; 3 covered parking spaces
• Security: Gated community; Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Resale property; West-facing
• Construction: Stucco and CBS construction; Barrel/concrete/Spanish tile roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Fenced yard; Private in-ground pool; In-ground spa; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (all on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; Split bedroom layout; Three-way split bedroom layout; Closet cabinetry; Cabana bath; Decorative electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry tub

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.18M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.09M (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.09M (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Panther Run Elementary School (math 85% / reading 82%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 787 students, 19% FRL); Polo Park Middle School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,156 students, 33% FRL); Palm Beach Central High School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #198 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 2,980 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $194 of equity ($8k loan paydown + $-8k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,087,306 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $761,196
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11552 Paradise Cove Ln	0.44mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,668 (+10%)	9mo	$840,000	$229	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-17,756
• Equity at exit: $302,065

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $166,959
• Equity at exit: $333,184

Cash invested: $329,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33449

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,873 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,162
• Tax from tax record: −$699 /mo · $8,389/yr
• Insurance: −$490
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,283
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,811

Max offer price $1,175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $293,750
• Closing costs: $35,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11910 Osprey Point Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4450	$17,000	$3.82	24d	1	0.09mi
11910 Osprey Point Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4450	$17,000	$3.82	11d	1	0.09mi
11836 Osprey Point Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4293	$15,999	$3.73	5d	1	0.09mi
11750 Osprey Point Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	3324	$6,800	$2.05	24d	1	0.10mi
4621 Windward Cove Ln Wellington, FL	4.0	3.0	2821	$4,000	$1.42	24d	1	0.15mi
11695 Sunrise View Ln Wellington, FL	5.0	4.5	4616	$12,000	$2.60	18d	1	0.21mi
11615 Paradise Cove Ln Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4177	$12,000	$2.87	21d	1	0.33mi
4190 Bahia Isle Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	2608	$5,500	$2.11	18d	1	0.36mi
4693 Sugar Beach Way Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	3280	$8,500	$2.59	24d	1	0.43mi
4673 Island Reef Dr Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4177	$8,500	$2.03	24d	1	0.52mi
12308 Equine Ln Wellington, FL	4.0	4.5	3740	$13,000	$3.48	24d	1	0.63mi
4600 Mariners Cove Dr Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	3375	$6,500	$1.93	24d	1	0.65mi
11246 Maritime Ct Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	3375	$6,000	$1.78	24d	1	0.67mi
4209 Wellington Shores Dr Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	3245	$5,500	$1.69	24d	1	0.71mi
11206 Maritime Ct Wellington, FL	5.0	3.0	3375	$5,250	$1.56	24d	1	0.72mi
12465 World Cup Ln Wellington, FL	5.0	4.5	3740	$10,000	$2.67	24d	1	0.81mi
11065 Stone Creek St Wellington, FL	4.0	2.5	2478	$4,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.88mi
3738 Old Lighthouse Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	3.5	2933	$8,500	$2.90	24d	1	0.90mi
10880 Northgreen Dr Lake Worth, FL	3.0	3.5	2929	$13,000	$4.44	7d	1	1.14mi
5562 Reynolds Rd Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.5	2546	$6,985	$2.74	24d	1	1.26mi
5775 Reynolds Rd Lake Worth, FL	4.0	3.5	3250	$6,995	$2.15	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,175,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $1,175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,389 · $699/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,752 · $813/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,364/yr (+$114/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $130,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$65,818
• − Property taxes: −$8,389
• − Insurance: −$5,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,438
• − Management: −$10,438
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$34,182
• Taxable loss: −$9,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,271
• After-tax cash flow: $12,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #4986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellington, FL
• City population: 60,184
• Population (ZIP): 9,131

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 4% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Current HPI: 271.0184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-48.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $1,175,000 Beaches MLS
• 2001-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $2,277,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,389 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.