Celeste Plan · Haines City, FL 33844

$293,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 161 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $293,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $345,440.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-590 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 2138 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 30d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $227,467 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.32%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,440
• List price: $293,990
• Delta: -14.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3529 Roden Rd	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,828 (+0%)	2mo	$344,990	$189	87
2271 Jennio Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,910 (+5%)	0mo	$298,890	$156	85
2475 Aveeno Ave	0.20mi	4/2.5	1,910 (+5%)	1mo	$315,149	$165	80
2255 Jennio Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-12%)	0mo	$299,690	$187	73
3873 Amers Loop	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+9%)	2mo	$317,083	$160	72
3893 Amers Loop	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+9%)	2mo	$318,544	$160	72
3537 Roden Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-8%)	0mo	$321,990	$193	68
5413 Willow Crk	0.58mi	4/2.5	1,866 (+2%)	1mo	$340,990	$183	67
5397 Willow Crk	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,866 (+2%)	2mo	$337,990	$181	64
5393 Willow Crk	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,665 (-9%)	2mo	$316,900	$190	55
4571 Riverbend Blvd	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+12%)	1mo	$339,999	$167	45
5302 Willow Crk	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-12%)	1mo	$294,440	$183	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-97,672
• Equity at exit: $51,506

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-149,675
• Equity at exit: $29,867

Cash invested: $96,723 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 67 active · 105 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $312,490 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 2138
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$432 /mo · $5,182/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-590

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,022

Max offer price $260,027

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-352	-5% $-471	+0% $-590	+5% $-710	+10% $-829
Rent	-10% $-770	-5% $-680	+0% $-590	+5% $-500	+10% $-411
Rate	-1.0pp $-416	-0.5pp $-502	base $-590	+0.5pp $-680	+1.0pp $-771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,360
• Closing costs: $10,363
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2990 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$2,000	$1.45	2d	1	0.05mi
2986 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,730	$1.25	2d	1	0.06mi
2974 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$1,600	$1.15	2d	1	0.07mi
2290 Jennio Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2366	$2,290	$0.97	10d	1	0.11mi
2918 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,900	$1.38	2d	1	0.13mi
2914 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,950	$1.42	1d	1	0.13mi
2242 Jennio Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2366	$2,290	$0.97	10d	1	0.19mi
2230 Jennio Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2366	$2,300	$0.97	5d	1	0.21mi
3917 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1737	$2,250	$1.30	2d	1	0.23mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	164d	1	0.26mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	164d	1	0.26mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	118d	1	0.27mi
3542 Roden Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,000	$1.20	34d	1	0.28mi
3862 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	3.5	2400	$1,950	$0.81	28d	1	0.28mi
4045 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	10d	1	0.28mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	144d	1	0.31mi
3841 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$1,999	$1.15	10d	1	0.31mi
4107 Longleaf St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2136	$2,000	$0.94	46d	1	0.32mi
2526 Aveeno Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	55d	1	0.32mi
3833 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,100	$1.15	10d	1	0.33mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	144d	1	0.34mi
4822 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$2,250	$1.07	10d	1	0.56mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Unit A Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$1,990	$0.94	110d	1	0.56mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	164d	1	0.60mi
4789 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2492	$2,800	$1.12	10d	1	0.65mi
4789 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2492	$2,800	$1.12	29d	1	0.65mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	164d	1	0.65mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	164d	1	0.68mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	143d	1	0.69mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,100	$1.00	29d	1	0.69mi
5521 Clove Row Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1607	$1,900	$1.18	1d	1	0.70mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,200	$1.71	110d	1	0.72mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	164d	1	0.73mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	164d	1	0.74mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,490	$1.18	10d	1	0.74mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	144d	1	0.74mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	164d	1	0.75mi
5306 Willow Crk Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2387	$2,375	$0.99	10d	1	0.75mi
5306 Willow Crk Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2387	$2,375	$0.99	9d	1	0.75mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,100	$1.14	55d	1	0.75mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City, FL 33844Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $293,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (2-car garage)
• Home design: Celeste planPlan inventory type
• Construction: Built as part of new construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,824New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard new-construction kitchen (model: Celeste)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $293,990 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $293,990 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $293,990 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $293,990 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $293,990 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $293,990 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $293,990 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $293,990 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $293,990 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $293,990 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $293,990 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $293,990 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $293,990 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $293,990 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $293,990 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $293,990 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $293,990 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $293,990 Active 136 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $293,990 Active 135 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $293,990 Active 134 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $293,990 Active 133 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $293,990 Active 132 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $293,990 Active 131 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $293,990 Active 130 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $293,990 Active 129 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $293,990 Active 128 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $293,990 Active 127 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $293,990 Active 126 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $293,990 Active 125 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $293,990 Active 124 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $293,990 Active 123 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $293,990 Active 122 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $293,990 Active 121 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $293,990 Active 120 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $293,990 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $293,990 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $293,990 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $293,990 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $293,990 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $293,990 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $293,990 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $293,990 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $293,990 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $293,990 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $293,990 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $293,990 Active 105 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $293,990 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $293,990 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $293,990 Active 101 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $293,990 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,182
• − Insurance: −$1,727
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$10,049
• Taxable loss: −$13,379
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,211
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern single-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and adding smart home features to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances can make the home more appealing to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and attract eco-conscious buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City, FL 33844Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $293,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (2-car garage)
• Home design: Celeste planPlan inventory type
• Construction: Built as part of new construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,824New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard new-construction kitchen (model: Celeste)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (new construction plan)