EAGLE RIVER 604 Southwind Village Plan · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Find the home of your dreams when you buy a manufactured home in the friendly community of Southwind Village, in Jackson, NJ. Feel what it's like to live in the function and style of our brand new homes' open-concept floor plans, 3-bedroom and 2-bathroom layouts, full kitchen appliance packages, and wood cabinets. The advantages of choosing UMH Properties Inc. don't end with the features inside of our turnkey ready homes. The Southwind Village community offers a range of on-site amenities for its residents, from our community center, basketball court, and playground, to 24-hour maintenance services and on-site management. Located just 20 minutes from the Jersey Shore and 57 miles from Philadelphia, PA. Southwind Village is a thriving community in which to live and play. The Jackson, NJ area offers its residents enjoyable parks, lakes, and historical landmarks. Have adventures with the family at nearby Six Flags Great Adventure, Timberlake Campground, Howling Woods Farm or Monmouth Battlefield Park. After a day of taking in the attractions, relax with a glass of wine at Cream Ridge Winery, go fishing at Johnson Memorial Park or try your luck at an Atlantic City Casino. Day to day life is made easier with nearby shops, restaurants, and food stores. With everything that Southwind Village has to offer, it is easy to understand why so many residents have chosen this community as their home. Southwind Village community is located in the Jackson Township School District. For Southwind Village community members looking to further their education, the Jackson, NJ area provides a variety of options for its students; Georgian Court College, Brookdale Community College, Ocean County College, and Misericordia University are all located nearby.

Key facts

• Community center
• Basketball court
• On-site management

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLANS
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• BASKETBALL COURT
• PLAYGROUND
• 24-HOUR MAINTENANCE SERVICES
• ON-SITE MANAGEMENT

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.11%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $53,286
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $120,160
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $1,263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $120,000 Active 1760-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1760 chars)

    Find the home of your dreams when you buy a manufactured home in the friendly community of Southwind Village, in Jackson, NJ. Feel what it's like to live in the function and style of our brand new homes' open-concept floor plans, 3-bedroom and 2-bathroom layouts, full kitchen appliance packages, and wood cabinets. The advantages of choosing UMH Properties Inc. don't end with the features inside of our turnkey ready homes. The Southwind Village community offers a range of on-site amenities for its residents, from our community center, basketball court, and playground, to 24-hour maintenance services and on-site management. Located just 20 minutes from the Jersey Shore and 57 miles from Philadelphia, PA. Southwind Village is a thriving community in which to live and play. The Jackson, NJ area offers its residents enjoyable parks, lakes, and historical landmarks. Have adventures with the family at nearby Six Flags Great Adventure, Timberlake Campground, Howling Woods Farm or Monmouth Battlefield Park. After a day of taking in the attractions, relax with a glass of wine at Cream Ridge Winery, go fishing at Johnson Memorial Park or try your luck at an Atlantic City Casino. Day to day life is made easier with nearby shops, restaurants, and food stores. With everything that Southwind Village has to offer, it is easy to understand why so many residents have chosen this community as their home. Southwind Village community is located in the Jackson Township School District. For Southwind Village community members looking to further their education, the Jackson, NJ area provides a variety of options for its students; Georgian Court College, Brookdale Community College, Ocean County College, and Misericordia University are all located nearby.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $14,086
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,381
• After-tax cash flow: $11,778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor cosmetic improvements that could significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $120,000 Zillow