8165 W 98th Ave · Vero Lake Estates, FL 32967

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2027 8,276 sqft lot Est $306k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the perfect blend of modern convenience and timeless design in the Poinsettia in Vero Lakes Estates, where a thoughtfully planned layout creates a natural flow from the foyer into the main living areas. Two bedrooms are positioned at the front for added privacy, while the owner's suite is tucked away at the back, featuring a spacious walk-in closet and a private bath with a dual vanity and walk-in shower. The open-concept kitchen is both stylish and functional, complete with stainless steel appliances, Shaker cabinets, laminate countertops, and a convenient pantry. It connects seamlessly to the dining nook and great room, creating a bright and welcoming space for everyday living an

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• 10x20 patio
• Shaker cabinets

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER CABINETS
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• CONVENIENT PANTRY
• 10X20 PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $274,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property (spec new construction, Poinsettia plan)
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,237
• Exterior features: Located at 8165 W 98th Ave, Vero Beach, FL 32967

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Poinsettia plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($132/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.9% in Vero Lake Estates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Treasure Coast Elementary School (math 61% / reading 57%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 691 students, 59% FRL); Storm Grove Middle School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,020 students, 50% FRL); Sebastian River High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 1,843 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8236 97th Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-1%)	3mo	$286,000	$226	87
8436 99th Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-0%)	3mo	$338,900	$267	80
7756 96th Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-1%)	5mo	$295,000	$234	67
8725 98th Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-0%)	2mo	$332,900	$262	66
7955 102nd Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	4mo	$250,000	$192	64
7776 101st Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+3%)	4mo	$260,000	$198	64
8616 101st Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-1%)	4mo	$280,000	$222	63
8126 100th Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+15%)	3mo	$353,900	$242	60
8646 98th Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-6%)	4mo	$280,000	$235	58
8426 99th Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+15%)	2mo	$359,900	$246	57
8266 102nd Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-10%)	1mo	$275,000	$240	55
7830 94th Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,417 (+11%)	5mo	$352,000	$248	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-50,896
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-70,661
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32967

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 611
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $106	+0% $11	+5% $-84	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-85	+0% $11	+5% $107	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $81	base $11	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8185 99th Ct Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,075	$1.43	22d	1	0.19mi
9715 79th St Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,825	$1.58	15d	1	0.37mi
8516 E 98th Ave Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,500	$1.65	15d	1	0.43mi
7955 101st Ct Vero Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,200	$1.25	22d	1	0.52mi
8415 102nd Ave Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,065	$1.48	22d	1	0.58mi
8075 104th Ave Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,500	$1.55	15d	1	0.76mi
8756 103rd Ave Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1244	$2,000	$1.61	22d	1	0.95mi
9024 100th Ct Vero Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,500	$1.35	22d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on marketlisting id $274,900 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $274,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $274,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,322
• − Management: −$2,322
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$4,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $1,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River
• NCES district ID: 1200930
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,597
• Composite: 42.45/100
• National rank: #3218
• State rank: #35 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vero Lake Estates, FL
• County: Indian River County · 143,738 people
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,240
• Household income: $78,058
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 674.0

Population outlook (Indian River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,104 people
• By 2030: 172,869 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 185,640 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 194,465 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 211,115 · +27.9%
• By 2100: 211,781 · +28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Indian River

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 36.0% · R 63.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.34%
• Current HPI: 282.6156
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B