444 Underhill Ave · New York, NY 10473

$449,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1931 2,500 sqft lot Est $799k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity in the Bronx – R5 Zoning! Bring your vision to 444 Underhill Ave, a property full of potential in a prime Bronx location! This solid home sits on an R5-zoned lot, offering great possibilities for redevelopment or expansion. Ideal for investors, builders, or cash buyers ready to take on a project. The property needs updates, but with the right touch, it can become a strong income-producing asset or a great addition to your portfolio. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, transportation, and major highways. Cash buyers only. Sold as-is. Don’t miss this chance to invest in one of the Bronx’s most promising neighborhoods!

Key facts

• R5 zoning
• Prime bronx location
• 2,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• R5 ZONING
• PRIME BRONX LOCATION
• INCOME-PRODUCING ASSET
• PROMISING NEIGHBORHOODS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $474 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $395k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,004/mo this rent would consume 92% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 3913% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $449k implies a 591% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $798,750
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
740 Rosedale Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,272 (+1%)	20mo	$780,000	$343	53
2080 Virgil Pl	0.56mi	4/1.5	2,008 (-11%)	2mo	$765,000	$381	48
2088 Virgil Pl	0.57mi	4/1.5	2,008 (-11%)	9mo	$723,000	$360	42
404 Olmstead Ave	0.43mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (-11%)	16mo	$710,000	$355	39
2054 Virgil Pl	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-11%)	18mo	$689,000	$345	38
404 Howe Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,944 (-14%)	9mo	$655,000	$337	36
110 Husson Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-11%)	12mo	$760,000	$380	35
2226 Lacombe Ave	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,944 (-14%)	19mo	$700,000	$360	32
2142 Virgil Pl	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,944 (-14%)	21mo	$625,000	$322	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-42,740
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $896
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10473

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$841
• Net cashflow: $474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,404

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Dune Ct Unit 1 Bronx, NY	4.0	2.5	1600	$4,300	$2.69	24d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-22
   listed $449,000 Active
3. 2025-10-09
   historical
4. 2025-07-15
   listed $475,000 Active
5. 2024-10-16
   status Active
6. 2024-10-09
   historical
7. 2024-08-23
   price $480,000
8. 2024-04-09
   listed $575,000 Active
9. 1999-05-19
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,677 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,911/yr (+$243/mo · 164.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,844
• − Management: −$3,844
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$1,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$447
• After-tax cash flow: $6,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,855
• Household income: $52,462
• Rent vs Own: 71.4% rent · 28.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3913.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 34% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 31% Dominican 20%
• Common ancestry: British 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.70%
• Current HPI: 276.2941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+590.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-23 Price Changed $480,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-09 Listed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.