15214 Pebble Bend Dr · Houston, TX 77068

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,449 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1979 8,624 sqft lot $112/sqft · 7% below area Est $297k · 7% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming updated home located in the cozy woody community of Olde Oaks. Tall vaulted ceilings as soon as you walk in, spacious open floor plan downstairs, living area open to upstairs. Wonderful for entertaining guests, you have a double door opening to the back yard, a wonderful indoor/outdoor transition. Primary bedroom is located downstairs with newly renovated on suite bathroom. Give yourself a spa day in your newly tiled shower. This beautiful home is located with in minutes from major highways 45 and beltway. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. Come and take a look at your dream home!

Key facts

• Guest room
• Hobby space
• Home office

Tags

• POTENTIAL 4TH BEDROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• GUEST ROOM
• HOBBY SPACE
• UPDATES AND UPGRADES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Olde Oaks Community Improvement association; Annual association fee of $510

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1979; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard); Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (17x14); Two secondary bedrooms on the second floor (13x12; 13x13); Additional bedroom/office on the second floor (15x9); 4 possible bedrooms total
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas fireplace (1); Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $275k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,817 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.24%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,690
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -7.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3506 Woodbriar Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,459 (+0%)	1mo	$364,900	$148	72
3915 Glenheather Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,450 (0%)	2mo	$319,900	$131	72
15110 Falling Creek Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,096 (-14%)	3mo	$299,000	$143	69
3307 Manor Tree Ln	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,318 (-5%)	1mo	$268,000	$116	64
15007 Walters Rd	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,730 (+12%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	63
15418 Falling Creek Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,254 (-8%)	4mo	$225,000	$100	62
4206 Tulip Oak Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,362 (-4%)	2mo	$310,000	$131	57
15506 Falling Creek Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,186 (-11%)	5mo	$257,900	$118	54
3226 Forest Willow Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,624 (+7%)	1mo	$309,990	$118	52
14803 Forest Enclave Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,278 (-7%)	5mo	$287,000	$126	50
16015 Pebble Bend Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	2,170 (-11%)	4mo	$375,000	$173	48
4022 Streambed Trl	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,792 (+14%)	2mo	$325,000	$116	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,578
• Equity at exit: $51,715

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,973
• Equity at exit: $42,591

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$471 /mo · $5,651/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-208

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,621

Max offer price $238,318

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-130	+0% $-208	+5% $-285	+10% $-363
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-301	+0% $-208	+5% $-114	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-69	-0.5pp $-138	base $-208	+0.5pp $-279	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	1.07mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	44d	1	1.18mi
4703 Cashel Cir Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,950	$1.13	19d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 906-char remark
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $275,000 Active 906-char remark
3. 2021-04-28
   soldstatus
4. 2021-04-23
   soldstatus Sold 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Charming updated home located in the cozy woody community of Olde Oaks. Tall vaulted ceilings as soon as you walk in, spacious open floor plan downstairs, living area open to upstairs. Wonderful for entertaining guests, you have a double door opening to the back yard, a wonderful indoor/outdoor transition. Primary bedroom is located downstairs with newly renovated on suite bathroom. Give yourself a spa day in your newly tiled shower. This beautiful home is located with in minutes from major highways 45 and beltway. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. Come and take a look at your dream home!

5. 2021-03-22
   status Pending 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Charming updated home located in the cozy woody community of Olde Oaks. Tall vaulted ceilings as soon as you walk in, spacious open floor plan downstairs, living area open to upstairs. Wonderful for entertaining guests, you have a double door opening to the back yard, a wonderful indoor/outdoor transition. Primary bedroom is located downstairs with newly renovated on suite bathroom. Give yourself a spa day in your newly tiled shower. This beautiful home is located with in minutes from major highways 45 and beltway. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. Come and take a look at your dream home!

6. 2021-03-17
   status Option Pending 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Charming updated home located in the cozy woody community of Olde Oaks. Tall vaulted ceilings as soon as you walk in, spacious open floor plan downstairs, living area open to upstairs. Wonderful for entertaining guests, you have a double door opening to the back yard, a wonderful indoor/outdoor transition. Primary bedroom is located downstairs with newly renovated on suite bathroom. Give yourself a spa day in your newly tiled shower. This beautiful home is located with in minutes from major highways 45 and beltway. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. Come and take a look at your dream home!

7. 2021-03-15
   listed $230,000 Active 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Charming updated home located in the cozy woody community of Olde Oaks. Tall vaulted ceilings as soon as you walk in, spacious open floor plan downstairs, living area open to upstairs. Wonderful for entertaining guests, you have a double door opening to the back yard, a wonderful indoor/outdoor transition. Primary bedroom is located downstairs with newly renovated on suite bathroom. Give yourself a spa day in your newly tiled shower. This beautiful home is located with in minutes from major highways 45 and beltway. Easy access to shopping, restaurants, and entertainment. Come and take a look at your dream home!

8. 2014-11-10
   soldstatus
9. 2014-10-31
   soldstatus Sold

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   Updated home in established wooded neighborhood near Champions shopping area. Inviting backyard - landscaped, fenced & no back neighbors. Alarm system can be remotely monitored. Kitchen has granite countertops, smooth top stove, double oven, ceiling fan, & tiled floors. Dining room & master bedroom have rugged laminate wood floors. Rooms are spacious and have many added features. Upstairs bedrooms have dormer windows & nooks which add about 18 sq ft of space. See pictures for more information

10. 2014-09-30
    status Pending, Continue to Show

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Updated home in established wooded neighborhood near Champions shopping area. Inviting backyard - landscaped, fenced & no back neighbors. Alarm system can be remotely monitored. Kitchen has granite countertops, smooth top stove, double oven, ceiling fan, & tiled floors. Dining room & master bedroom have rugged laminate wood floors. Rooms are spacious and have many added features. Upstairs bedrooms have dormer windows & nooks which add about 18 sq ft of space. See pictures for more information

11. 2014-09-16
    status Option Pending

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Updated home in established wooded neighborhood near Champions shopping area. Inviting backyard - landscaped, fenced & no back neighbors. Alarm system can be remotely monitored. Kitchen has granite countertops, smooth top stove, double oven, ceiling fan, & tiled floors. Dining room & master bedroom have rugged laminate wood floors. Rooms are spacious and have many added features. Upstairs bedrooms have dormer windows & nooks which add about 18 sq ft of space. See pictures for more information

12. 2014-09-11
    listed $165,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Updated home in established wooded neighborhood near Champions shopping area. Inviting backyard - landscaped, fenced & no back neighbors. Alarm system can be remotely monitored. Kitchen has granite countertops, smooth top stove, double oven, ceiling fan, & tiled floors. Dining room & master bedroom have rugged laminate wood floors. Rooms are spacious and have many added features. Upstairs bedrooms have dormer windows & nooks which add about 18 sq ft of space. See pictures for more information

13. 2009-02-18
    soldstatus
14. 2009-02-13
    soldstatus
15. 2009-01-08
    historical
16. 2008-10-08
    listed $139,900
17. 2008-09-22
    historical
18. 2008-07-02
    listed $139,900
19. 2005-09-19
    soldstatus
20. 2001-09-20
    historical
21. 2001-05-08
    listed $133,000
22. 1990-01-22
    soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,651 · $471/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,651 · $471/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,651
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $-770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+159.4% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-15 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2014-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-09-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-09-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-09-11 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2009-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-01-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-10-08 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2008-09-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-02 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-09-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-05-08 Listed $133,000 HARMLS
• 1990-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,651 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.