16856 San Juan Dr · Detroit, MI 48221

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1926 7,405 sqft lot $69/sqft · 31% below area Est $145k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect turnkey investment in one of Detroit's most desirable and revitalized neighborhoods—the University District. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home spans approximately 1,500 sq ft of cozy, efficient living space, spacious living room, and a functional kitchen The layout includes three generously sized bedrooms upstairs and a full bath, ideal for small families, professionals, or students. It's currently leased to a reliable, good-paying tenant on a month-to-month agreement. Bounded by Seven Mile Road to the north and McNichols Road to the south, it's adjacent to the prestigious University of Detroit Mercy (UDM) campus, Shopping & Dining on Livernois Avenue (The Avenue of Fashion): A short 5-minute walk or drive to revitalized boutiques, art galleries, coffee shops, and eateries like Chef Gregory's soul food spot or the trendy Atlas Coffee Club. Grab fresh produce at the Livernois Farmers Market or browse vintage finds at local shops. Transit & Connectivity: Excellent walkability (Bike Score: Somewhat Bikeable) with paved sidewalks and DDOT buses along Livernois, 7 Mile, and McNichols for quick commutes to downtown Detroit (15 minutes) or the New Center area. Easy highway access via I-75 or M-10.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Paved sidewalks
• Well maintained

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• 5 MINUTE WALK TO BOUTIQUES
• EXCELLENT WALKABILITY
• PAVED SIDEWALKS
• EASY HIGHWAY ACCESS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $100,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$145,447) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.62%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,447
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -31.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16811 Stoepel St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	5mo	$138,000	$92	77
17600 Santa Barbara Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,446 (-1%)	2mo	$145,000	$100	74
16659 Lilac St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-11%)	1mo	$40,000	$31	72
17421 Quincy St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,474 (+1%)	2mo	$234,500	$159	71
16143 Monica St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+3%)	2mo	$175,000	$117	68
17127 Woodingham Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,623 (+12%)	4mo	$215,000	$132	61
16204 Wisconsin St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,536 (+6%)	1mo	$163,000	$106	59
16141 Wildemere St	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,448 (-0%)	5mo	$165,000	$114	58
16533 Parkside St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	2mo	$205,000	$137	54
16161 Roselawn St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,666 (+14%)	1mo	$169,000	$101	51
18037 Pennington Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,672 (+15%)	0mo	$91,000	$54	48
17528 Ohio St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,673 (+15%)	5mo	$219,900	$131	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $7,690
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $39,412
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48221

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,410 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,203/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $393	+0% $364	+5% $336	+10% $308
Rent	-10% $253	-5% $309	+0% $364	+5% $420	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $390	base $364	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16722 Tuller St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	17d	1	0.10mi
17163 Prairie St Unit 1B Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1317	$1,350	$1.03	44d	1	0.15mi
17147 Monica St Unit 2 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	25d	1	0.16mi
17145 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	18d	1	0.19mi
16582 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1314	$1,399	$1.06	18d	1	0.24mi
16255 Lilac St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,394	$1.06	18d	1	0.28mi
17368 Woodingham Dr Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	0.34mi
17215 Warrington Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1015	$2,000	$1.97	44d	1	0.36mi
17551 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1036	$1,095	$1.06	44d	1	0.40mi
17159 Northlawn St Unit 17161 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1122	$975	$0.87	5d	1	0.43mi
17195 Northlawn St #2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	25d	1	0.44mi
17195 Northlawn St #1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	20d	1	0.44mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	44d	1	0.45mi
17596 Santa Rosa Dr Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,195	$0.89	25d	1	0.46mi
17530 Roselawn St Unit 1 Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	25d	1	0.48mi
16834 Fairfield St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1516	$1,363	$0.90	25d	1	0.57mi
16546 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1577	$1,500	$0.95	44d	1	0.58mi
15771 Turner St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,049	$1.05	44d	1	0.62mi
7350 Globe St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	4d	1	0.63mi
16183 Wisconsin St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1370	$1,400	$1.02	44d	1	0.66mi
16230 Indiana St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	18d	1	0.67mi
15791 Cherrylawn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1792	$1,100	$0.61	44d	1	0.73mi
16889 Washburn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,100	$0.85	18d	1	0.80mi
15777 Wisconsin St Unit 77 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	5d	1	0.81mi
15457 Cloverlawn St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,275	$0.85	25d	1	0.81mi
16934 Ilene St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1516	$1,400	$0.92	20d	1	0.83mi
15906 Alden St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	17d	1	0.92mi
16174 Princeton St Unit 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	44d	1	0.94mi
16174 Princeton St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	985	$1,100	$1.12	20d	1	0.94mi
15765 Washburn St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1093	$950	$0.87	44d	1	0.99mi
2521 W McNichols Rd Unit B2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	44d	1	1.01mi
19031 Livernois Unit F Detroit, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,135	$1.94	44d	1	1.07mi
17540 Pinehurst St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	1.12mi
15345 Parkside St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,300	$1.13	44d	1	1.13mi
15708 Birwood St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1255	$1,100	$0.88	5d	1	1.14mi
16927 Inverness St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	897	$1,650	$1.84	17d	1	1.16mi
18935 Indiana St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,523	$1.22	5d	1	1.18mi
15512 Mendota St Apt 2 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	44d	1	1.20mi
15512 Mendota St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	931	$1,200	$1.29	5d	1	1.20mi
15760 Monte Vista St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,250	$1.16	44d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 179 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2025-12-06
   listed $100,000 Active 1276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

   Discover the perfect turnkey investment in one of Detroit's most desirable and revitalized neighborhoods - the University District. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home spans approximately 1,500 sq ft of cozy, efficient living space, spacious living room, and a functional kitchen The layout includes three generously sized bedrooms upstairs and a full bath, ideal for small families, professionals, or students. It's currently leased to a reliable, good-paying tenant on a month-to-month agreement. Bounded by Seven Mile Road to the north and McNichols Road to the south, it's adjacent to the prestigious University of Detroit Mercy (UDM) campus, Shopping & Dining on Livernois Avenue (The Avenue of Fashion): A short 5-minute walk or drive to revitalized boutiques, art galleries, coffee shops, and eateries like Chef Gregory's soul food spot or the trendy Atlas Coffee Club. Grab fresh produce at the Livernois Farmers Market or browse vintage finds at local shops. Transit & Connectivity: Excellent walkability (Bike Score: Somewhat Bikeable) with paved sidewalks and DDOT buses along Livernois, 7 Mile, and McNichols for quick commutes to downtown Detroit (15 minutes) or the New Center area. Easy highway access via I-75 or M-10.

6. 2025-12-06
   listed $100,000 Active 1272-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1272 chars)

   Discover the perfect turnkey investment in one of Detroit's most desirable and revitalized neighborhoods - the University District. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom single-family home spans approximately 1,500 sq ft of cozy, efficient living space, spacious living room, and a functional kitchen The layout includes three generously sized bedrooms upstairs and a full bath, ideal for small families, professionals, or students. It's currently leased to a reliable, good-paying tenant on a month-to-month agreement. Bounded by Seven Mile Road to the north and McNichols Road to the south, it's adjacent to the prestigious University of Detroit Mercy (UDM) campus, Shopping & Dining on Livernois Avenue (The Avenue of Fashion): A short 5-minute walk or drive to revitalized boutiques, art galleries, coffee shops, and eateries like Chef Gregory's soul food spot or the trendy Atlas Coffee Club. Grab fresh produce at the Livernois Farmers Market or browse vintage finds at local shops. Transit & Connectivity: Excellent walkability (Bike Score: Somewhat Bikeable) with paved sidewalks and DDOT buses along Livernois, 7 Mile, and McNichols for quick commutes to downtown Detroit (15 minutes) or the New Center area. Easy highway access via I-75 or M-10.

7. 2021-09-27
   soldstatus $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,203 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,203 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,203
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,354
• − Management: −$1,354
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,001
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$720
• After-tax cash flow: $3,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Detroit Public Schools Community District
• NCES district ID: 2601103
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $25,815
• Composite: 13.06/100
• National rank: #9564
• State rank: #499 of 540 in MI

Livability — Detroit

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #5427

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Detroit, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 572,865
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 41,392
• Household income: $57,878
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1646.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -433.14%
• Current HPI: 280.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+11.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-06 Listed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-06 Listed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,203 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.