8320 Soda Bay · Soda Bay, CA 95451

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 248 Days on market

Built 1976 10,018 sqft lot $150/sqft · 46% below area Est $367k · 46% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming A-Frame Retreat in Buckingham Welcome to your picturesque A-frame sanctuary nestled in the heart of Buckingham! This delightful home combines rustic charm with modern comforts, making it the perfect getaway for relaxation and adventure. As you step inside, you are greeted by the warmth of original wood accents and cozy furnishings that create an inviting atmosphere. The spacious living room features stunning spiral wood stairs that lead to the upper level, seamlessly connecting to the open kitchen, making it a great space for entertaining family and friends. This home boasts two comfortable bedrooms on the main floor, perfect for family or guests, along with a full bathroom. The highlight of the upper level is the expansive primary bedroom, featuring a unique heart-shaped black tub where you can unwind and soak in your surroundings. Located just moments away from Konocti Harbor, you'll have access to numerous recreational activities, including boating, hiking, and fishing, all while enjoying the serene beauty of the area.

Key facts

• A-frame retreat
• Spiral wood stairs
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• A-FRAME RETREAT
• SPIRAL WOOD STAIRS
• HEART-SHAPED BLACK TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.8% in Soda Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#595 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riviera Elementary (223 students, 60% FRL); Mountain Vista Middle (375 students, 76% FRL); Kelseyville High (math 8% / reading 42%, grade F, #811 of 1,170 statewide, top 70%, 540 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,069
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -45.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3095 S Lake Dr	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,176 (-12%)	6mo	$338,000	$287	61
2844 Buckingham	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+8%)	2mo	$443,000	$308	61
8319 N Heights Dr	0.55mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,204 (-10%)	19mo	$299,000	$248	37
2510 Westlake Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-12%)	20mo	$330,000	$281	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,272
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $38,946
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95451

• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,832/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $546	+0% $489	+5% $432	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $310	-5% $400	+0% $489	+5% $579	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $590	-0.5pp $540	base $489	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3565 Idlewood Dr Kelseyville, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	45d	1	0.68mi
7095 Fairview Dr Kelseyville, CA	2.0	2.0	1297	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 242 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 240 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 239 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 234 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 233 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 226 DOM
18. 2025-10-16
    listed $200,000 Active 1050-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1050 chars)

    Charming A-Frame Retreat in Buckingham Welcome to your picturesque A-frame sanctuary nestled in the heart of Buckingham! This delightful home combines rustic charm with modern comforts, making it the perfect getaway for relaxation and adventure. As you step inside, you are greeted by the warmth of original wood accents and cozy furnishings that create an inviting atmosphere. The spacious living room features stunning spiral wood stairs that lead to the upper level, seamlessly connecting to the open kitchen, making it a great space for entertaining family and friends. This home boasts two comfortable bedrooms on the main floor, perfect for family or guests, along with a full bathroom. The highlight of the upper level is the expansive primary bedroom, featuring a unique heart-shaped black tub where you can unwind and soak in your surroundings. Located just moments away from Konocti Harbor, you'll have access to numerous recreational activities, including boating, hiking, and fishing, all while enjoying the serene beauty of the area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,832 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,832
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,795
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$671
• After-tax cash flow: $5,199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelseyville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619320
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,210
• Composite: 25.19/100
• National rank: #12920
• State rank: #1150 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Soda Bay

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #19239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $62,568
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 194.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.45%
• Current HPI: 168.6995
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-16 Listed $200,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,832 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.