10401 N Cave Creek Rd #254 · Phoenix, AZ 85020

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 252 Days on market

Built 1967 Est $33k · 9% under ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new retreat in this gated adult community, offering comfort, convenience, and style! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 1 bath home features a fully upgraded kitchen with modern finishes, perfect for cooking. The remodeled bathroom adds a touch of luxury with updated fixtures and a clean, contemporary design. This home features a newly installed mini-split in the living room and private window AC in the primary bedroom. Enjoy a relaxed lifestyle with community amenities like pool, workout center and clubhouse . Whether you're looking to downsize or enjoy a low-maintenance living space, this home has it all — move-in ready and waiting for you!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease community (monthly land lease $750); Association covers sewer, water, trash, street maintenance and grounds maintenance; Community pool; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; Gated parking; 2-car carport
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Metal roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Storage; Chain-link fencing; Desert front and back landscaping; City-maintained road access; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with granite counters; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s); Mini split cooling; Window/wall unit cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.07%
• DSCR: 5.36
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $33,120
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #274	0.00mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	7mo	$34,000	$47	92
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #305	0.09mi	2/2.0	728 (+1%)	8mo	$33,333	$46	83
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #115	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	704 (-2%)	8mo	$30,000	$43	81
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #331	0.09mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	20mo	$15,000	$21	74
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #275	0.16mi	2/1.0	792 (+10%)	8mo	$45,000	$57	69
10401 N Cave Creek Rd #263	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	784 (+9%)	18mo	$22,000	$28	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $35,561
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.87×
• Total profit: $74,520
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85020

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $707	-5% $697	+0% $686	+5% $676	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $597	-5% $642	+0% $686	+5% $731	+10% $776
Rate	-1.0pp $702	-0.5pp $694	base $686	+0.5pp $679	+1.0pp $671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1525 E Cheryl Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,157	$1.37	2d	6	0.14mi
1551 E Christy Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	702	$950	$1.35	25d	1	0.21mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 11 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$925	$1.85	0d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	25d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	8d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Apt 11 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$925	$1.85	25d	1	0.28mi
10644 N 15th Way Unit 08 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$925	$1.68	8d	1	0.28mi
9838 N 14th St #3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$1,150	$2.09	2d	1	0.30mi
1447 E Mountain View Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$1,050	$2.62	2d	1	0.37mi
9215 N 13th Pl Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	670	$1,200	$1.79	2d	1	0.71mi
10017 N 7th Pl #3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$700	$1.75	2d	1	0.78mi
10001 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	604	$1,229	$2.03	2d	11	0.86mi
823 E Carol Ave Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	532	$1,200	$2.26	2d	1	0.89mi
1136 E Eva St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	736	$1,600	$2.17	2d	1	0.90mi
9514 N 8th St Unit 202 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	724	$1,050	$1.45	2d	1	0.92mi
9028 N 11th St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	450	$750	$1.67	2d	1	0.95mi
10002 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,675	$1.53	2d	23	0.96mi
1027 E Dunlap Ave Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	2d	1	1.02mi
1027 E Dunlap Ave Apt 5 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$900	$2.25	2d	1	1.02mi
1027 E Dunlap Ave Apt 5 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	400	$1,000	$2.50	2d	1	1.02mi
9603 N 5th St Unit B Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	530	$945	$1.78	11d	1	1.08mi
9618 N 5th St Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	648	$1,050	$1.62	20d	1	1.10mi
9618 N 5th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	648	$995	$1.54	2d	1	1.10mi
8940 N 8th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	2d	2	1.14mi
513 E Hatcher Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	496	$850	$1.71	2d	1	1.14mi
9230 N 6th St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	475	$650	$1.37	15d	1	1.15mi
9230 N 6th St Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	475	$749	$1.58	22d	1	1.15mi
9230 N 6th St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	475	$650	$1.37	20d	1	1.15mi
801 E Puget Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	450	$1,095	$2.43	2d	1	1.17mi
315 E Carol Ave Unit B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	11d	1	1.20mi
9809 N 2nd Way Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,690	$2.41	11d	1	1.20mi
8847 N 8th St #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	510	$850	$1.67	13d	1	1.24mi
8842 N 8th St #103 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	680	$850	$1.25	11d	1	1.27mi
9502 N 2nd Pl Unit N Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	2d	1	1.35mi
602 E Townley Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$799	$1.60	2d	1	1.36mi
602 E Townley Ave Unit 106 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	2d	1	1.36mi
102 E Hatcher Rd Unit 9404 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	2d	1	1.37mi
12231 N 19th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	774	$1,500	$1.94	2d	16	1.39mi
1720 E Thunderbird Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$1,500	$2.13	0d	9	1.41mi
9820 N Central Ave #308 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	727	$1,195	$1.64	2d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 243 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 242 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 241 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $30,000 Active 238 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 237 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 236 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 235 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 234 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $30,000
15. 2026-02-24
    price $30,500
16. 2026-01-15
    price $31,000
17. 2025-12-04
    price $32,500
18. 2025-10-09
    listed $34,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $6,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,916
• Household income: $83,735
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2104.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -484.20%
• Current HPI: 305.8855
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.77%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $30,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $30,500 ARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $31,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $32,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $34,900 ARMLS