20 Balsam Cres · New York Mills, NY 13413

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1951 9,600 sqft lot Est $178k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Hartford sweet! If you're looking for a small space done well, this easy living 3 bedroom ranch with a delightful cathedral ceiling 3 season room which can be easily converted for year round use. Flat and partially fenced yard, large, single stall, detached garage. Outstanding condition with updated to the bathroom and kitchen, newer windows/doors, and a newer heating system.

Key facts

• Flexible space
• Insulated addition
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• INSULATED ADDITION
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• FLEXIBLE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.1% in New York Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#175 in NY, #2,712 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,963 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,500
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23 Balsam Cres	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	875 (0%)	23mo	$166,000	$190	75
6 Elmhurst Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	976 (+12%)	2mo	$218,000	$223	69
7 Francis Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0	832 (-5%)	16mo	$144,900	$174	64
7 Oakdale Ave S	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+4%)	18mo	$189,900	$208	62
12 Leard Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0	864 (-1%)	15mo	$160,000	$185	61
7 Watts Rd	0.34mi	2/1.5	840 (-4%)	18mo	$163,000	$194	60
4 Cone Cir	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+6%)	9mo	$230,000	$249	58
17 Hara Cres	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-1%)	20mo	$176,000	$204	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,967
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,630
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,944/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $276	-5% $220	+0% $163	+5% $107	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $9	-5% $86	+0% $163	+5% $240	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $214	base $163	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
167 Clinton Rd New Hartford, NY	3.0	1.0–2.5	1063	$2,433	$2.29	44d	15	0.81mi
112 Copeland Ct Unit 520 New Hartford, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,700	$2.12	44d	1	0.86mi
4770 Middle Settlement Rd Whitesboro, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$2,085	$2.88	44d	1	1.13mi
77 Clinton St New York Mills, NY	2.0	1.0	777	$1,450	$1.86	44d	7	1.30mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2022-07-01
   soldstatus $135,000 Closed Sale or Rented 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   New Hartford sweet! If you're looking for a small space done well, this easy living 3 bedroom ranch with a delightful cathedral ceiling 3 season room which can be easily converted for year round use. Flat and partially fenced yard, large, single stall, detached garage. Outstanding condition with updated to the bathroom and kitchen, newer windows/doors, and a newer heating system.

4. 2022-04-07
   status Pending Sale 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   New Hartford sweet! If you're looking for a small space done well, this easy living 3 bedroom ranch with a delightful cathedral ceiling 3 season room which can be easily converted for year round use. Flat and partially fenced yard, large, single stall, detached garage. Outstanding condition with updated to the bathroom and kitchen, newer windows/doors, and a newer heating system.

5. 2022-03-21
   price $149,000 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   New Hartford sweet! If you're looking for a small space done well, this easy living 3 bedroom ranch with a delightful cathedral ceiling 3 season room which can be easily converted for year round use. Flat and partially fenced yard, large, single stall, detached garage. Outstanding condition with updated to the bathroom and kitchen, newer windows/doors, and a newer heating system.

6. 2022-03-11
   listed $159,000 Active 382-char remark

   Show marketing remark (382 chars)

   New Hartford sweet! If you're looking for a small space done well, this easy living 3 bedroom ranch with a delightful cathedral ceiling 3 season room which can be easily converted for year round use. Flat and partially fenced yard, large, single stall, detached garage. Outstanding condition with updated to the bathroom and kitchen, newer windows/doors, and a newer heating system.

7. 2008-03-18
   soldstatus $79,000
8. 2001-05-22
   soldstatus $36,000 52-char remark

   Show marketing remark (52 chars)

   WELL CARED FOR HOME. NICE DEEP LOT. APPLIANCES STAY.

9. 2001-01-08
   listed $39,000 52-char remark

   Show marketing remark (52 chars)

   WELL CARED FOR HOME. NICE DEEP LOT. APPLIANCES STAY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,944 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,161 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,944
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$313
• After-tax cash flow: $2,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — New York Mills

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #2712

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 3,012
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+412.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2022-07-01 Sold (MLS) $135,000 CNYIS
• 2022-04-07 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-03-21 Price Changed $149,000 CNYIS
• 2022-03-11 Listed $159,000 CNYIS
• 2008-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-22 Sold (MLS) $36,000 CNYIS
• 2001-01-08 Listed $39,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,944 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.