8705 Powderhorn Row · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1973 6,176 sqft lot Est $220k · 11% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this move-in ready 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath home located in the desirable golf course community of Beacon Woods. Situated on corner lot with spacious fenced back yard perfect for entertaining, pets, or simply enjoying extra outdoor space with room to relax & play. NEW ROOF 2025. Flexible floor plan includes a generous sized living room, open kitchen overlooking dining area, separate den/office, & mudroom leading from garage into kitchen. One of this home's standout features is its 12x21 vinyl-enclosed screened porch, perfect for entertaining or enjoying your morning coffee. Laminate flooring throughout main living areas. Beacon Woods features numerous community amenities inclu

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Clubhouse
• Tennis courts

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED BACK YARD
• VINYL ENCLOSED SCREENED PORCH
• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Community features include deed restrictions, golf and golf-cart-friendly areas
• Financial info: Total annual fees noted as $360; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee around $30 ($90 quarterly); Association approval required; HOA amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, park, basketball court, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence (PUD); One story; Homestead exempt; Faces southwest
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.14 acre
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Chain link fence; Corner lot; Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 59 x 90

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Drapes
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Highlands Elementary School (math 29% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 714 students, 89% FRL); Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,547 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13004 Spicebox Way	0.32mi	2/1.5	1,068 (0%)	3mo	$244,000	$228	80
8409 Mill Creek Ln	0.33mi	2/1.5	1,116 (+4%)	9mo	$195,000	$175	68
8312 Split Rail Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-3%)	8mo	$150,000	$144	68
13001 Sawmill Way	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,173 (+10%)	9mo	$235,000	$200	62
8914 Woodmill Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,215 (+14%)	3mo	$250,000	$206	61
13205 Woodward Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,035 (-3%)	9mo	$225,000	$217	58
8901 Wayward Cir	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,003 (-6%)	1mo	$222,000	$221	57
8607 Sagewood Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,206 (+13%)	8mo	$312,500	$259	56
8605 Sagewood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,221 (+14%)	1mo	$254,500	$208	54
8603 Sagewood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,226 (+15%)	6mo	$241,000	$197	49
8210 Woodsong Row	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	2mo	$228,000	$190	49
13102 Pembrook Ct	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,221 (+14%)	9mo	$209,000	$171	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-30,350
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,361
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $747/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $151	+0% $96	+5% $41	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $31	+0% $96	+5% $161	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $146	base $96	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13102 Pembrook Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1221	$1,575	$1.29	26d	1	0.41mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	1d	1	0.43mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	26d	1	0.43mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	26d	1	0.47mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	23d	1	0.47mi
12221 Holbrook Dr Bayonet Point, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	761	$1,685	$2.21	0d	55	0.55mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,468	$1.33	4d	10	0.96mi
11635 Salmon Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	816	$1,500	$1.84	26d	1	1.05mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	26d	1	1.07mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	26d	1	1.11mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,645	$1.65	26d	1	1.13mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,645	$1.67	19d	1	1.13mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	19d	1	1.17mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	26d	1	1.17mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	26d	1	1.20mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	1.21mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	6d	1	1.21mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	6d	1	1.25mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	19d	1	1.26mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	14d	1	1.28mi
9723 Tom St Unit 9723 Hudson, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	26d	1	1.31mi
9723 Tom St Hudson, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,100	$1.53	5d	1	1.31mi
9723 Tom St Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	19d	1	1.31mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	13d	1	1.36mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	26d	1	1.36mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	6d	1	1.36mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	14d	1	1.37mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	4d	1	1.42mi
9440 Bourbon St Unit 9 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,275	$1.82	26d	1	1.44mi
9444 Bourbon St Unit 12 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,875	$1.63	26d	1	1.44mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	19d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 116.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$747
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $1,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $747 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.