8682 Petunia Ave · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1985 0.52 ac lot $146/sqft · 20% above area Est $212k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently updated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering comfort and functionality. This property features new commercial-grade carpet and vinyl flooring throughout, providing durability and style. Enjoy a spacious backyard complete with a garden area and a large workshop—perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. The chain-link fence adds convenience while maintaining an open feel. A great opportunity for those needing extra space both inside and out! Call today for a showing

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Spacious backyard
• Garden area

Tags

• NEW COMMERCIAL-GRADE CARPET
• VINYL FLOORING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• GARDEN AREA
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• CHAIN-LINK FENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $195,099 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,878
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: 20.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8597 Pansy Ave	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,752 (+1%)	1mo	$265,000	$151	85
8577 Marigold Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-3%)	9mo	$285,000	$169	67
7646 Violet St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,766 (+1%)	4mo	$116,280	$66	58
8586 Marigold Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,508 (-13%)	2mo	$160,000	$106	55
8485 Burrell Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-5%)	14mo	$225,000	$136	51
8485 Marigold Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-13%)	12mo	$225,000	$149	46
7593 Verbena	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+15%)	11mo	$129,000	$65	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $139,003
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $426,240
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,197/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $239,936

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-13	+0% $-85	+5% $-157	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-162	+0% $-85	+5% $-8	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-20	base $-85	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $255,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    listed $265,000 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Recently updated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering comfort and functionality. This property features new commercial-grade carpet and vinyl flooring throughout, providing durability and style. Enjoy a spacious backyard complete with a garden area and a large workshop—perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. The chain-link fence adds convenience while maintaining an open feel. A great opportunity for those needing extra space both inside and out! Call today for a showing

19. 2024-07-22
    soldstatus
20. 2024-07-19
    soldstatus Closed 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This home has wonderful potential and is just waiting for a new owner to shine her up. Open floor plan so you can enjoy everyone's company when family and friends gather at your home. Split bedroom arrangement with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Has another room what would make a great office. Looking for a large yard? This home is situated on 3 lots which also has a storm cellar and a metal workshop /garage. Come take a look for yourself and see what a great home this would make for you and yours.

21. 2024-05-19
    status Pending 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This home has wonderful potential and is just waiting for a new owner to shine her up. Open floor plan so you can enjoy everyone's company when family and friends gather at your home. Split bedroom arrangement with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Has another room what would make a great office. Looking for a large yard? This home is situated on 3 lots which also has a storm cellar and a metal workshop /garage. Come take a look for yourself and see what a great home this would make for you and yours.

22. 2024-04-18
    price $195,000 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This home has wonderful potential and is just waiting for a new owner to shine her up. Open floor plan so you can enjoy everyone's company when family and friends gather at your home. Split bedroom arrangement with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Has another room what would make a great office. Looking for a large yard? This home is situated on 3 lots which also has a storm cellar and a metal workshop /garage. Come take a look for yourself and see what a great home this would make for you and yours.

23. 2024-02-06
    listed $199,900 Active 501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (501 chars)

    This home has wonderful potential and is just waiting for a new owner to shine her up. Open floor plan so you can enjoy everyone's company when family and friends gather at your home. Split bedroom arrangement with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Has another room what would make a great office. Looking for a large yard? This home is situated on 3 lots which also has a storm cellar and a metal workshop /garage. Come take a look for yourself and see what a great home this would make for you and yours.

24. 2021-07-14
    soldstatus
25. 2018-03-23
    soldstatus
26. 2018-03-21
    soldstatus
27. 2017-07-24
    listed $164,900
28. 2014-06-30
    soldstatus
29. 2013-11-12
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,197 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,470/yr (+$206/mo · 112.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,197
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grape Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,891
• Composite: 23.6/100
• National rank: #7849
• State rank: #675 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grape Creek, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $265,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-19 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2024-05-19 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $195,000 SAAR TX
• 2024-02-06 Listed $199,900 SAAR TX
• 2021-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-21 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2017-07-24 Listed $164,900 SAAR TX
• 2014-06-30 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2013-11-12 Listed $159,900 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,197 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.