9520 Simeon Dr · Connerton, FL 34638

$297,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2008 6,741 sqft lot Est $316k · 6% under $73/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. PRICE IMPROVEMENT | MOVE-IN READY 3 BEDROOM | SCREENED IN PATIO WITH FENCED YARD | Welcome to this beautifully maintained and move-in ready home offering a bright, open layout and comfortable living spaces throughout, situated on a corner lot in the Asbel Estates community of Land O Lakes. Featuring durable wood-look flooring and abundant natural light, the main living and dining areas flow seamlessly – perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen overlooks the living area and includes ample cabinet storage, a functional layout, and a convenient dining nook with direct access to the backyard. The split floor plan provi

Key facts

• Wood cabinetry
• Pantry closet
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN LIVING DINING KITCHEN
• WOOD CABINETRY
• PANTRY CLOSET
• UPDATED ENSUITE BATHROOM
• SCREENED IN COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,275 sq ft (building area 1,920 sq ft); Lot approximately 0.16 acres; Association approval not required
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated; Total annual fees listed as $880
• HOA & community: ASBEL ESTATES HOA with quarterly association fee; Monthly HOA approximately $73.33 (quarterly fee $220); Community amenities include park, playground and sidewalks; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; MPUD zoning; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with mixed masonry and stucco exterior
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Sidewalk; Wood fencing; Lighting; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Sliding doors; Lighting
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($590/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,719 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,200
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9603 Maxson Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,275 (0%)	7mo	$290,000	$227	90
9551 Maxson Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,275 (0%)	12mo	$324,900	$255	87
9607 Maxson Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,275 (0%)	16mo	$320,000	$251	83
9620 Simeon Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,275 (0%)	18mo	$299,900	$235	81
19555 Timberbluff Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-0%)	11mo	$315,000	$248	67
18822 Quarry Badger Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+8%)	10mo	$363,000	$264	62
19804 Timberbluff Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-0%)	16mo	$290,000	$228	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,234
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-69,439
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,558/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $297,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $133	+0% $49	+5% $-35	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-48	+0% $49	+5% $146	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $125	base $49	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9543 Maxson Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,250	$1.21	26d	1	0.07mi
18916 Randall Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,200	$1.42	26d	1	0.08mi
18846 Quarry Badger Rd Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$3,000	$1.62	26d	1	0.36mi
10120 Perthshire Cir Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1872	$1,200	$0.64	26d	1	0.58mi
10567 Heron Hideaway Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,050	$1.34	14d	1	0.87mi
10179 Gliding Eagle Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,800	$1.53	19d	1	0.88mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	26d	1	0.88mi
18774 Grand Live Oak Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,349	$1.80	1d	1	1.09mi
18772 Grand Live Oak BLVD HOWEY IN HLS, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1076	$2,682	$2.49	0d	171	1.10mi
10735 Hawks Landing Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,495	$1.35	16d	1	1.11mi
8710 Preston Woods Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,850	$1.69	19d	1	1.14mi
17761 Pleasantview Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,600	$1.39	22d	1	1.22mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	26d	1	1.32mi
17784 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,450	$1.60	26d	1	1.34mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,095	$1.38	26d	1	1.35mi
18039 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,895	$1.91	26d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $297,000
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $309,000 Active
4. 2008-02-15
   soldstatus $322,400
5. 2006-12-26
   soldstatus $4,986,450

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,465 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 58.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,558
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,349
• − Management: −$2,349
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$4,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,087
• After-tax cash flow: $1,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $297,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $322,400 Public Records
• 2006-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $4,986,450 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,558 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.