4021 Sailfish St · Bay St. Louis, MS 39520

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 785 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1965 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Oversized waterfront lot with private boat ramp! This unique property offers water frontage on two sides, providing incredible views and easy access for boating and fishing. The main camp features 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and an open floor plan that's perfect for relaxing weekend getaways. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered deck overlooking the water--ideal for morning coffee or evening sunsets. A second, energy-efficient unit on the property offers additional space and also includes its own covered deck, making it great for guests, rental income, or a separate retreat. The large lot gives you all the room you need for playing, and boat parking. All this located just minutes from I-10, offe

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Water frontage
• Private boat ramp

Tags

• WATERFRONT LOT
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• WATER FRONTAGE
• EASY ACCESS FOR BOATING
• COVERED DECK
• ENERGY EFFICIENT UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities: Boating, Fishing, Marina, RV/Boat Storage

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 vehicles; Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story home; Fixer condition; Entry on two levels
• Construction: Wood siding; Built on pilings/steel/wood foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Dock; Corner lot; Canal front waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Two levels (home has two stories)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($142/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 1.8% in Bay St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bay St Louis Waveland School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #21 of 130 in MS (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Waveland Elementary School (425 students, 100% FRL); Bay Waveland Middle School (math 51% / reading 42%, grade D+, #38 of 179 statewide, top 21%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Bay High School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #43 of 197 statewide, top 24%, 491 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 610 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.43%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,865
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4099 Shark St	0.14mi	2/1.0	736 (-6%)	22mo	$155,900	$212	64
4081 Cardinal St	0.66mi	2/1.0	768 (-2%)	12mo	$247,000	$322	56
10063 Alabama St	0.61mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	22mo	$239,000	$299	50
5061 1st Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	864 (+10%)	8mo	$229,999	$266	44
11024 New York St	0.63mi	1/1.0 (-1)	852 (+8%)	15mo	$280,000	$329	39
4015 Cardinal St	0.59mi	2/1.0	864 (+10%)	23mo	$289,500	$335	37
4141 5th St	0.31mi	2/3.0	895 (+14%)	24mo	$89,999	$101	34
10222 E Bayou View Dr	0.39mi	1/1.5 (-1)	900 (+15%)	20mo	$234,900	$261	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,640
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,744
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39520

• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,903/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $51	+0% $12	+5% $-28	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-58	+0% $12	+5% $81	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $47	base $12	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4024 Blue Jay St Bay Saint Louis, MS	2.0	2.0	953	$2,500	$2.62	15d	1	0.65mi
100 Waverly Dr Bay Saint Louis, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	861	$1,162	$1.35	13d	1	1.08mi
10055 Peachtree Dr Bay St Louis, MS	1.0	1.0	662	$1,150	$1.74	45d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $139,900 Active
3. 2025-09-29
   price $260,000
4. 2025-09-29
   historical
5. 2025-08-07
   price $230,000
6. 2025-06-05
   price $285,000
7. 2025-05-26
   listed $265,000 Active
8. 2025-05-17
   historical
9. 2025-04-22
   price $265,000
10. 2025-03-12
    listed $275,000 Active
11. 2024-11-19
    historical
12. 2024-09-18
    price $281,900
13. 2024-08-14
    price $299,900
14. 2024-06-26
    listed $321,900 Active
15. 2023-08-09
    historical
16. 2023-07-08
    price $437,000
17. 2023-06-17
    price $438,000
18. 2023-06-04
    listed $440,000 Active
19. 1995-09-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,903
• − Insurance: −$5,818
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay St Louis Waveland School District
• NCES district ID: 2800570
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,774
• Composite: 39.27/100
• National rank: #3998
• State rank: #21 of 130 in MS

Livability — Bay St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay St. Louis, MS
• Population (ZIP): 15,471

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.80%
• Current HPI: 227.2103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-68.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-17 Listed $139,900 MLSU
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $260,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $230,000 MLSU
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $285,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-26 Listed $265,000 MLSU
• 2025-05-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $265,000 MLSU
• 2025-03-12 Listed $275,000 MLSU
• 2024-11-19 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $281,900 MLSU
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $299,900 MLSU
• 2024-06-26 Listed $321,900 MLSU
• 2023-08-09 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-07-08 Price Changed $437,000 MLSU
• 2023-06-17 Price Changed $438,000 MLSU
• 2023-06-04 Listed $440,000 MLSU
• 1995-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,903 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.