W211N11683 Hilltop Cir · Germantown, WI 53022

$59,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 227 Days on market

Built 1989 ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS IS A MANUFACTURED HOME! MONTHLY LOT RENTAL IS $825 AND INCLUDES GARBAGE PICK UP AND MAINTENANCE OF ROADS! Other fees will be sewer/water ($25-$35)/personal property tax $17/month. 2 pets allowed, 1 cat and 1 dog or 2 cats, dog breeds limited. Awesome 2 BR 1 BA manufactured home. .. low maintenance living! Open concept floor plan, all appliances included, 1.5 car garage! Vaulted ceilings and NFP! Awesome, huge deck and a wooded lot! Buyers MUST get pre-approved with the park for renting the lot. No traditional financing, we suggest 21st Century Mortgage as they do manufactured home loans.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989
• Listed 227 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $804 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 2.1% in Germantown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#229 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Germantown School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #52 of 342 in WI (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (105 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.49%
• DSCR: 3.56
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $36,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
W211N11863 Hilltop Dr Unit D14	0.23mi	2/2.0	924 (+3%)	1mo	$37,500	$41	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $41,494
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $102,126
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53022

• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $824	+0% $804	+5% $783	+10% $762
Rent	-10% $682	-5% $743	+0% $804	+5% $864	+10% $925
Rate	-1.0pp $834	-0.5pp $819	base $804	+0.5pp $788	+1.0pp $772

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-04-22
   price $59,900
3. 2025-03-09
   price $65,000
4. 2024-12-10
   price $73,000
5. 2024-11-18
   price $78,000
6. 2024-10-11
   price $85,000
7. 2024-09-28
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $9,239
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,217
• After-tax cash flow: $7,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown School District
• NCES district ID: 5505160
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,496
• Composite: 43.66/100
• National rank: #2961
• State rank: #52 of 342 in WI

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #6122

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, WI
• County: Washington County · 47,863 people
• City population: 20,046
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,046
• Household income: $100,890
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 137,678 people
• By 2030: 138,441 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 137,047 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 130,918 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 115,447 · -16.1%
• By 2100: 93,069 · -32.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Asian 7% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.3) · D 31.3% · R 67.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -36.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.3 2020: R+38.1 2016: R+40.5 2012: R+40.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.24%
• Current HPI: 169.5534
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-13 Pending — SCWMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $59,900 SCWMLS
• 2025-03-09 Price Changed $65,000 SCWMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $73,000 SCWMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $78,000 SCWMLS
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $85,000 SCWMLS
• 2024-09-28 Listed $90,000 SCWMLS