Is 1155 Selene Sky Dr in Brookshire, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.9% cap rate and $-626/mo modeled cash flow at a $299,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1155 Selene Sky Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,129/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.87

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.9/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.2/5.0
Schools +2.2/10.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$299,000

1155 Selene Sky Dr · Brookshire, TX 77423

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,125 sqft lot 2-car garage $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

READY FOR MOVE-IN! Welcome to Sunterra Lakes and this beautiful new D. R. Horton 1-story home! Ideally located just one block from the amazing future amenity center, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional layout with modern finishes throughout. The kitchen features quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, a single-bowl farmhouse-style sink, and a convenient breakfast bar. The spacious primary suite offers a relaxing spa-like bathroom with separate tub and shower plus a generous walk-in closet. Enjoy solid surface flooring, a tankless water heater, and a covered back patio perfect for relaxing or entertaining.

Key facts

Quartz countertops
Walk-in closet
Farmhouse-style sink

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-626 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (23.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (28.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $213k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $212,948 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 3.94%
Cash-on-cash: -8.39%
DSCR: 0.63
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $319,490
List price: $299,000
Delta: -6.41%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1052 Selene Sky Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,574 (0%)	0mo	$289,990	$184	95
2000 Luminous Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (-6%)	0mo	$259,990	$176	81
3053 Duskshine Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	3mo	$253,990	$159	80
3073 Duskshine Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	5mo	$314,990	$197	76
1119 Selene Sky Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+14%)	1mo	$319,990	$178	70
3049 Duskshine Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	6mo	$336,990	$188	57
3032 Duskshine Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	6mo	$331,990	$185	57
1020 Star Skye Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+12%)	3mo	$307,040	$174	56
3081 Duskshine Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	4mo	$338,990	$189	55
1012 Sunlit Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+12%)	4mo	$303,490	$172	52
1013 Daybreak Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+12%)	5mo	$279,990	$158	48
1104 Sunlit Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+14%)	4mo	$299,900	$168	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -34.6%
Equity multiple: -0.09×
Total profit: $-97,765
Equity at exit: $47,637

10-year hold

IRR: -68.9%
Equity multiple: -0.79×
Total profit: $-160,179
Equity at exit: $27,624

Cash invested: $89,457 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 108 active · 39 under contract
Months of supply: 23.1 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $294,990 ($174/sqft)
Median days on market: 66 d
This list price: 51% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +16.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

Rents YoY: -1.0%
Active inventory: 1559
Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,129 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,792/yr
Insurance: −$133
HOA: −$100
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
Net cashflow: $-626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,921

Max offer price $228,960

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-405	-5% $-515	+0% $-626	+5% $-736	+10% $-846
Rent	-10% $-794	-5% $-710	+0% $-626	+5% $-542	+10% $-457
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-544	base $-626	+0.5pp $-708	+1.0pp $-793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $79,872
Closing costs: $9,585
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Part of the Grand Manors associationAnnual association fee of $1,200Community curbs

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew constructionSingle-story (first-floor living)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built in 2026Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior
Exterior features: Private yard with backyard fencingDeckPatioSprinkler/irrigationSubdivision settingAsphalt and concrete road access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposalQuartz counters
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13)Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10)Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: High ceilingsQuartz countersProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

HOA detail $100/mo · $1,200/yr

Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-10-10

pricedays on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $300,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $300,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $300,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $300,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $300,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $300,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $300,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $300,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $300,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $300,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $300,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $300,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $300,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $300,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $300,000 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,554
− Mortgage interest: −$17,896
− Property taxes: −$4,792
− Insurance: −$1,597
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
− Management: −$2,044
− HOA: −$1,200
− Depreciation: −$9,294
Taxable loss: −$13,315

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,196
After-tax cash flow: $-4,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a great location. It offers a good condition score and potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting and minor touch-ups — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Addition of smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by offering modern conveniences and energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal Early Childhood Center Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Royal ISD
NCES district ID: 4838190
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $41,059
Composite: 19.55/100
National rank: #8760
State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Brookshire

Score: 62/100
State rank: #960
US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Waller County · 60,772 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 18,767
Household income: $84,490
Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
Current HPI: 204.8709
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-09-14 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
2026-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-07-30 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
2026-05-30 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
2026-05-28 Listed $314,990 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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