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8210 Buck Ln
D Composite 40.78
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +13.4/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.7/30.0
  • 1% rule +4.4/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • DSCR +1.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$274,900

8210 Buck Ln · Rosharon, TX 77583
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,879 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market
Built 2021 Good condition 6,860 sqft lot 2-car garage $146/sqft · 13% below area Est $317k · 13% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Putt putt your way to your dream home! Welcome to Caldwell Ranch! This lovely home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, an open floor plan, and a spacious living area. The beautiful kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a gas range, a large kitchen island, a stainless-steel farm sink, and recessed lights. The floors are laminate throughout, and the bedrooms have carpeting. There's even a beautiful accent wall! This generous-sized home also comes with a putting green and firepit area creating a fun and relaxing space for entertaining. Enjoy the community amenities, which include a playground, and a pool complete with theme park slides. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and close to major freeways for an easy commute. Make this your dream home today!

Key facts

  • 6,860 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (25.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (6.3% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $206k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $205,999 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.94%
Cap rate
4.88%
Cash-on-cash
-5.04%
DSCR
0.78
GRM
8.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$316,570
List price
$274,900
Delta
-13.16%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1115 Della Ln 0.07mi 4/2.0 1,879 (0%) 4mo $300,000 $160 93
8435 Sacred Lotus Ln 0.34mi 4/2.0 1,860 (-1%) 5mo $279,500 $150 78
831 Petunia Falls Ln 0.32mi 4/2.0 1,833 (-2%) 4mo $269,900 $147 78
502 Poppy Field Ct 0.59mi 4/2.0 1,833 (-2%) 1mo $275,000 $150 68
1103 Curly Angora Ct 0.51mi 4/2.0 1,784 (-5%) 3mo $285,000 $160 65
8407 Sandy Coral Ln 0.29mi 4/3.0 2,042 (+9%) 6mo $329,490 $161 64
958 Autumn Flats Way 0.37mi 4/2.0 2,061 (+10%) 4mo $279,990 $136 63
8319 Tartan Ct 0.72mi 4/2.5 1,896 (+1%) 2mo $260,000 $137 61
7802 Murciana Dr 0.45mi 4/2.0 2,061 (+10%) 4mo $300,000 $146 60
950 Autumn Flats Way 0.39mi 4/3.0 2,078 (+11%) 4mo $299,990 $144 57
7710 Murciana Dr 0.51mi 4/2.0 2,061 (+10%) 4mo $305,000 $148 57
826 Green Clover Ln 0.34mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,621 (-14%) 6mo $250,000 $154 52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-30.5%
Equity multiple
0.02×
Total profit
$-75,492
Equity at exit
$40,988
10-year hold
IRR
-55.6%
Equity multiple
-0.58×
Total profit
$-121,466
Equity at exit
$23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
76 active · 42 under contract
Months of supply
6.6 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$302,995 ($160/sqft)
Median days on market
44 d
This list price
18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1445
Price-to-rent
8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,575 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,442
Tax from tax record
$730 /mo · $8,763/yr
Insurance
$115
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$71
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$541
Net cashflow
$-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,068
Max offer price $205,999
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-234 -5% $-312 +0% $-390 +5% $-468 +10% $-546
Rent -10% $-593 -5% $-492 +0% $-390 +5% $-288 +10% $-187
Rate -1.0pp $-252 -0.5pp $-320 base $-390 +0.5pp $-461 +1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$68,725
Closing costs
$8,247
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 19 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 3.0 2512 $2,550 $1.02 68d 1 0.03mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1409 $2,100 $1.49 93d 1 0.06mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1263 $1,970 $1.56 71d 1 0.09mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX 5.0 3.0 2200 $2,500 $1.14 93d 1 0.28mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 2588 $2,650 $1.02 93d 1 0.44mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,830 $1.54 12d 1 0.52mi
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 3.0 2492 $2,850 $1.14 73d 1 0.54mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1833 $2,300 $1.25 93d 1 0.55mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX 5.0 2.5 2506 $2,550 $1.02 93d 1 0.72mi
407 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1704 $2,195 $1.29 17d 1 0.75mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 2067 $2,375 $1.15 93d 1 0.76mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.5 2004 $2,200 $1.10 93d 1 0.86mi
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1764 $2,070 $1.17 12d 1 1.28mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1719 $1,750 $1.02 62d 1 1.28mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX 3.0 2.5 1866 $2,121 $1.14 0d 1 1.35mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Iowa Colony, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1857 $2,950 $1.59 16d 1 1.38mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $2,000 $1.08 62d 1 1.41mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Iowa Colony, TX 3.0 2.0 1561 $2,225 $1.43 8d 1 1.47mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 3.0 1999 $2,600 $1.30 93d 1 1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Association: InframarkAnnual association fee of $850Community pool

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Security
Smoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyFaces southwestBuilt in 2021Slab foundation
Construction
Brick, cement siding, and stucco exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features
Covered patioCovered deck/patio/porchPorchPatioPrivate yardFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGas cooktopGas ovenMicrowaveGarbage disposal
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on first floor (14 x 19)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 12)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 12)
Flooring
CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features
Electric fireplace (1)Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryQuartz countersSelf-closing cabinet doorsSoaking tubSeparate showerTub/showerWalk-in pantryCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat

HOA detail $71/mo · $852/yr

Likely covers
gaspool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $274,900 Active 120 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $274,900 Active 118 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $274,900 Active 117 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $274,900 Active 116 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 115 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 112 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $274,900 Active 110 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $274,900 Active 109 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $274,900 Active 107 DOM
  10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $282,500 Active 105 DOM
  11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $282,500 Active 104 DOM
  12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $282,500 Active 103 DOM
  13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $282,500 Active 102 DOM
  14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $282,500 Active 101 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,500 Active 99 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,500 Active 98 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $282,500 Active 97 DOM
  18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $282,500 Active 96 DOM
  19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $282,500 Active 95 DOM
  20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,500 Active 94 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,500 Active 93 DOM
  22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $282,500 Active 92 DOM
  23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $282,500 Active 91 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,500 Active 90 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $282,500 Active 88 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,500 Active 87 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,500 Active 86 DOM
  28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $282,500 Active 85 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $282,500 Active 84 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $282,500 Active 83 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $282,500 Active 82 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $282,500 Active 81 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $282,500 Active 80 DOM
  34. 2026-06-29
    price $282,500 Active 79 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $285,000 Active 79 DOM
  36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $285,000 Active 78 DOM
  37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $285,000 Active 77 DOM
  38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $285,000 Active 75 DOM
  39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
  40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
  41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $285,000 Active 69 DOM
  42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
  43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
  44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 66 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 64 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
  47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
  48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 55 DOM
  49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 54 DOM
  50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$8,763 · $730/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$8,763 · $730/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$30,894
− Mortgage interest
−$15,399
− Property taxes
−$8,763
− Insurance
−$2,172
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,472
− Management
−$2,472
− HOA
−$852
− Depreciation
−$7,997
Taxable loss
−$9,232
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,216
After-tax cash flow
$-2,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,395–$28,185 screening

This well-maintained single-story home in Rosharon, TX, offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 1,879 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space. The open-concept layout features a spacious living area with high ceilings and a modern fireplace, seamlessly connecting to the dining area and kitchen—perfect for entertaining and everyday living.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
  • Both Replace fireplace glass — Maintains aesthetic and safety

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID
4819650
Math proficiency
44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$82,360
Composite
44.61/100
National rank
#2779
State rank
#140 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score
65/100
State rank
#701
US rank
#13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
52,747
Household income
$119,287
Rent vs Own
9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,004,526 people
By 2030
1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040
1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050
1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075
2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100
2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-4.2% since first listed
16 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-28 Price Changed $282,500 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-10 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-05-30 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2025-05-28 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2025-05-10 Pending HARMLS
  • 2025-05-06 Pending HARMLS
  • 2025-04-27 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
  • 2025-04-23 Listed $299,990 HARMLS
  • 2024-12-07 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
  • 2024-12-06 Pending HARMLS
  • 2024-12-02 Pending HARMLS
  • 2024-11-29 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-11-25 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-11-17 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
  • 2024-11-16 Listed for Rent $2,500 HARMLS
  • 2024-11-12 Listed $295,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,763 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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